Forex News and Market Commentary

Weekly Forex Market Followup (January 30th - February 3rd 2012)

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 11:38:39 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of January 30th through February 3rd

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of January 30th through February 3rd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, January 30th

9:45pm NZD Building Consents 2.1% versus last -6.4% expected. The currency fell.

Tuesday, January 31st

1:30pm CAD GDP -0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 61.1 versus 68.4 expected. The currency mostly rose.

Wednesday, February 1st

1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.5 versus 49.8 expected.
8:15am CHF Retail Sales 0.6% versus 1.6% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.1 versus 50.2 expected. The currency rose.
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 170K versus 193K expected.
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.1 versus 54.6 expected. The currency fell overall.

Thursday, February 2nd

12:30am AUD Building Approvals -1.0% versus 2.3% expected.
12:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.71B versus 1.23B expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 51.4 versus 53.0 expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 367K versus 371K expected.
3:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke testified, saying that, "Globally, economic activity appears to be slowing, restrained in part by spillovers from fiscal and financial developments in Europe. The combination of high debt levels and weak growth prospects in a number of European countries has raised significant concerns about their fiscal situations, leading to substantial increases in sovereign borrowing costs, concerns about the health of European banks, and associated reductions in confidence and the availability of credit in the euro area." The currency was mixed.

Friday, February 3rd

9:30am GBP Services PMI 56.0 versus 53.6 expected. The currency fell.
12:00pm CAD Employment Change 2.3K versus 23.5K expected.
12:00pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.6% versus 7.5% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 243K versus 156K expected. 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 8.3% versus 8.5% expected.
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.8 versus 53.2 expected. The currency was mixed.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.3221 open to a 1.3105 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 76.67 open to a 76.59 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.5732 open to a 1.5793 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.0637 open to a 1.0765 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0009 open to a 0.9951 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.8230 open to a 0.8364 close.

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (January 30th - February 3rd 2012)

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 09:34:28 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of January 30th – February 3rd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, January 30th

9:45pm NZD Building Consents (last -6.4%, > good for currency)

Tuesday, January 31st

1:30pm CAD GDP (0.2%, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence (68.4, > good for currency)

Wednesday, February 1st

1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI (49.8, > good for currency)
8:15am CHF Retail Sales (1.6%, > good for currency)
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (50.2, > good for currency)
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (193K, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (54.6, > good for currency)
9:45pm NZD Employment Change (last 0.2%, > good for currency)
9:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate (last 6.6%, < good for currency)

Thursday, February 2nd

12:30am AUD Building Approvals (2.3%, > good for currency)
12:30am AUD Trade Balance (1.23B, > good for currency)
9:30am GBP Construction PMI (53.0, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (371K, < good for currency)
3:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies (hawkish = good for currency)

Friday, February 3rd

3rd-8th GBP Halifax HPI (0.1%, > good for currency)
9:30am GBP Services PMI (53.6, > good for currency)
12:00pm CAD Employment Change (23.5K, > good for currency)
12:00pm CAD Unemployment Rate (7.5%, < good for currency)
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change (156K, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate (8.5%, < good for currency)
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.2, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3219, 1.3241/58, 1.3281, 1.3334, 1.3362 and 1.3433/95.
Above: 1.3546/68, 1.3614 and 1.3795/98.

Support:
Initial: 1.3211, 1.3197, 1.3145, 1.3055/76, 1.3000, 1.2983, 1.2968, 1.2957, 1.2946, 1.2917, 1.2886, 1.2873/77 and 1.2857.
Below: 1.2623/65, 1.2586, 1.2523, 1.2484, 1.2329 and 1.1876.

USDJPY: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 76.83, 77.00/13, 77.29/33, 77.48/49, 77.61/89, 78.06/16, 78.22, 78.27/28, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22 and 80.82.
Above: 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.

Support:
Initial: 76.55, 76.41, 76.10, 75.94 and 75.70.
Below: 75.65, 75.56, plus 75.00 and 70.00 likely.

GBPUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5735/45, 1.5770/74 and 1.5868/90.
Above: 1.6092, 1.6128 and 1.6164.

Support:
Initial: 1.5717, 1.5685/91, 1.5668, 1.5624/29, 1.5557/85, 1.5531/37, 1.5516, 1.5465/99, 1.5422, 1.5410 and 1.5375
Below: 1.5293, 1.5270/77, 1.5232, 1.5123 and 1.5000.

AUDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0686, 1.0718, 1.0751 and 1.0784/98.
Above: 1.1010 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0654, 1.0608, 1.0498, 1.0444, 1.0384, 1.0303, 1.0266, 1.0224/29, 1.0216 and 1.0100/16.
Below: 1.0000/52, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9861/63 and 0.9732.

USDCAD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0026/78, 1.0105/42, 1.0160, 1.0172, 1.0199, 1.0207/32, 1.0262/87, 1.0297, 1.0302, 1.0334/37, 1.0415/23, 1.0438 and 1.0481.
Above: 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:
Initial: 0.9980, 0.9969, 0.9934, 0.9891, 0.9828/77 and 0.9724/96.
Below: 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8240/48, 0.8339, 0.8423 and 0.8504.
Above: 0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial: 0.8109/90, 0.8066/93, 0.7993/96, 0.7979, 0.7955, 0.7906, 0.7855/88, 0.7827/36 and 0.7804/09.
Below: 0.7795, 0.7723/73, 0.7605/72, 0.7568, 0.7500/52, 0.7404/67, 0.7321/69, 0.7189, 0.7115 and 0.7000.

Weekly Forex Market Followup (January 23rd - January 27th 2012)

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 13:33:45 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of January 23rd through January 27th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of January 23rd through January 27th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

Monday, January 23^rd

12:30am AUD PPI 0.3% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.

Tuesday, January 24^th

3:31am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that, "As for the outlook, Japan's economic activity will remain more or less flat for the time being. After that, the economy is expected to return to a moderate recovery path as the pace of recovery in overseas economies picks up, led by emerging and commodity-exporting economies, and reconstruction-related demand after the earthquake disaster gradually materializes."
3:31am JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10%, as expected.
7:20am JPY BOJ Press Conference noted that, "The euro's fall versus the yen could drag on Japanese companies' export competitiveness against European rivals. It could also hurt the economy by worsening corporate revenues and sentiment." The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 10.8B versus 12.7B expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
8:00pm GBP BOE Governor King said that, "With inflation falling back and wage growth subdued, there is scope for interest rates to remain low, and, if necessary, for further asset purchases, to prevent inflation falling below the 2 percent target.” The currency rose.

Wednesday, January 25^th

12:30am AUD CPI 0.0% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 108.3 versus 107.7 expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes vote 0-0-9, as expected. Members "noted a downside risk to inflation arising from the possibility that the reduction in the economy's supply potential following the recession had been less, and hence spare capacity greater, than assumed in the (November) Inflation Report." The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Preliminary GDP -0.2% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales -3.5% versus -0.3% expected.
5:28pm USD FOMC Statement noted that, "The Committee expects economic growth over coming quarters to be modest and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate."
7:15pm USD FOMC Press Conference. Fed Chair Bernanke said that, If the situation continues with inflation below target and unemployment declining at a rate which is very, very slow, then our framework, the logic of our framework says, we should be looking for ways to do more. ... We need to adopt policies that will both achieve our inflation objectives and help the economy recover as quickly as feasible." The currency fell.
8:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate versus 2.50% expected.
8:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement noted that, "Since the time of the December Statement, financial market sentiment has improved slightly, with increased liquidity in European financial markets. However, the global economy remains fragile and risks to the outlook remain." The currency rose.

Thursday, January 26^th

1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 2.1% versus 1.0% expected.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 377K versus 371K expected.
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 307K versus 322K expected. The currency fell.

Friday, January 27^th

10:30am CHF KOF Economic Barometer -0.17 versus -0.06 expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Advance GDP 2.8% versus 3.1% expected. The currency fell.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.2877 open to a 1.3161 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 76.94 open to a 81.67 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.5555 open to a 1.5690 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.0477 open to a 1.0644 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.0138 open to a 1.0005 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.8067 open to a 0.8239 close.

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (January 23rd - January 27th 2012)

Mon, 23 Jan 2012 09:59:14 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of January 23rd – January 27th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, January 23^rd

12:30am AUD PPI (0.4%, > good for currency)

Tuesday, January 24^th

Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate (<0.10%, > good for currency)
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (12.7B, < good for currency)
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales (0.2%, > good for currency)
8:00pm GBP BOE Governor King speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Wednesday, January 25^th

12:30am AUD CPI (0.2%, > good for currency)
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate (107.7, > good for currency)
9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9, > good for currency)
9:30am GBP Preliminary GDP (-0.1%, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales (-0.3%, > good for currency)
7:15pm USD FOMC Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
8:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate (2.50%, > good for currency)
8:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)

Thursday, January 26^th

All Day AUD Bank Holiday
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders (1.0%, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (371K, < good for currency)
3:00pm USD New Home Sales (322K, > good for currency)

Friday, January 27^th

10:30am CHF KOF Economic Barometer (-0.06, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Advance GDP (3.1%, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.2946, 1.2957, 1.2968, 1.2983, 1.3000, 1.3055/76, 1.3145 and 1.3197.
Above: 1.3211, 1.3241/58, 1.3281, 1.3334, 1.3362, 1.3433/95, 1.3546/68, 1.3614 and 1.3795/98.

Support:
Initial: 1.2917, 1.2886, 1.2873/77, 1.2857, 1.2665, 1.2643, 1.2625 and 1.2586.
Below: 1.2623, 1.2484, 1.2329 and 1.1876.

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 77.00/13, 77.29/33, 77.48/49, 77.61/89, 78.06/16, 78.22, 78.28, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22 and 80.82.
Above: 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.

Support:
Initial: 76.83, 76.41/66, 76.10, 75.94 and 75.70.
Below: 75.65, 75.56, plus 75.00 and 70.00 likely.

GBPUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5557/85, 1.5624/29, 1.5668, 1.5685/91 and 1.5717.
Above: 1.5735/45, 1.5770/74, 1.5868/90, 1.6092, 1.6128 and 1.6164.

Support:
Initial: 1.5531/37, 1.5516, 1.5465/99, 1.5422, 1.5410, 1.5375, 1.5293, 1.5270/77, 1.5232, 1.5123 and 1.5000.
Below: 1.4947, 1.4782, 1.4769, 1.4474, 1.4345 and 1.4229.

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0498, 1.0608 and 1.0654.
Above: 1.0718/84, 1.1010 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0444, 1.0384, 1.0303, 1.0266, 1.0224/29, 1.0216, 1.0100/16, 1.0000/52, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9861/63 and 0.9732.
Below: 0.9689, 0.9661/67, 0.9651, 0.9620/27, 0.9536/41 and 0.9500.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0160, 1.0172, 1.0199, 1.0207/32, 1.0262/87, 1.0297, 1.0302, 1.0334/37, 1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506 and 1.0522.
Above: 1.0646/56, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756, 1.0785.1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000 and 1.1101/23.

Support:
Initial: 1.0105/42, 1.0026/78, 0.9969 and 0.9934.
Below: 0.9891, 0.9828/77, 0.9724/96, 0.9686 and 0.9645.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8066, 0.8080, 0.80/93, and 0.8109/90.
Above: 0.8240, 0.8571 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial: 0.7993/96, 0.7979, 0.79550.7906, 0.7855/88, 0.7827/36, 0.7804/09, 0.7795, 0.7723/73, 0.7605/72, 0.7568 and 0.7500/52.
Below: 0.7404/67, 0.7369, 0.7342, 0.73210.7189, 0.7115 and 0.7000.

Weekly Forex Market Followup (January 16th - January 20th 2012)

Fri, 20 Jan 2012 12:16:55 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of January 16th through January 20th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of January 16th through January 20th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

Monday, January 16^th

12:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements -0.9%, as expected.
12:30am AUD Home Loans 1.4%, as expected. The currency rose.
All Day USD Bank Holiday
6:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, "To a great extent, markets anticipated these ratings changes and priced their assets as if these ratings had already been issued.” The currency rose.
9:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence 0 versus 25 expected. The currency rose.

Tuesday, January 17^th

2:00am CNY GDP 8.9% versus 8.7% expected.
9:30am GBP CPI 4.2%, as expected.
9:45am GBP BOE Governor King said that, “Quite astonishingly the UK government managed to issue a 35-year (index-linked) bond at a negative real interest rate recently. This is a world none of us ever thought we would be in. It's telling us something really profound about what's going on. But if those are the likely long term real interest rates, you would expect to see very high ratio of asset prices and debt to income." The currency rose.
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -21.6 versus -49.7 expected. The currency rose.
2:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement noted that, "The sovereign debt crisis in Europe has intensified, conditions in international financial markets have tightened and risk aversion has risen. The recession in Europe is now expected to be deeper and longer than the Bank had anticipated in October."
2:00pm CAD Overnight Rate 1.00%, as expected. The currency rose.

Wednesday, January 18^th

9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 1.2K versus 8.2K. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD PPI -0.1% versus 0.1% expected.
2:00pm USD TIC Long Term Purchases 59.8B versus 27.3B expected. The currency fell overall.
3:30pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report noted that, "The Canadian economy is estimated to have grown by 2.4 per cent in 2011, and is projected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2012, and 2.8 per cent in 2013, returning to full capacity by the third quarter of 2013. Total CPI inflation is expected to return to the 2 per cent target by the 3rd quarter of 2013."
4:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference noted that, "Europe is the biggest external threat to Canada without question, this is an economy, which through no fault of our own, faces considerable external headwinds, there are significant downside risks that are coming from ... notably Europe." The currency rose.
9:45pm NZD CPI -0.3% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.

Thursday, January 19^th

12:30am AUD Employment Change -29.3K versus 10.3K expected.
12:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.2% versus 5.3% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Building Permits 0.68M, as expected.
1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.1%, as expected.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 352K versus 389K expected.
3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 7.3 versus 11.3 expected. The currency fell.

Friday, January 20^th

2:30am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.8 versus last 48.7.
9:30am GBP Retail Sales 0.6%, as expected. The currency rose.
12:00pm CAD Core CPI -0.5% versus -0.2% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 4.61M versus 4.65M expected. The currency rose overall.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.2633 open to a 1.2929 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 77.06 open to a 77.19 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.5278 open to a 1.5532 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.0287 open to a 1.0469 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.0244 open to a 1.0138 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.7918 open to a 0.8047 close.

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (January 16th - January 20th 2012)

Wed, 18 Jan 2012 16:46:18 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of January 16th – January 20th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, January 16^th

12:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (-0.9%, > good for currency)
12:30am AUD Home Loans (1.4%, > good for currency)
All Day USD Bank Holiday
6:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
9:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence (25, > good for currency)

Tuesday, January 17^th

2:00am CNY GDP (8.7%, > good for currency)
9:30am GBP CPI (4.2%, > good for currency)
9:45am GBP BOE Governor King speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (-49.7, > good for currency)
2:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
2:00pm CAD Overnight Rate (1.00%, > good for currency)

Wednesday, January 18^th

9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change (8.2K, < good for currency)
1:30pm USD PPI (0.1%, > good for currency)
2:00pm USD TIC Long Term Purchases (27.3B, > good for currency)
3:30pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report (hawkish = good for currency)
4:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
9:45pm NZD CPI (0.4%, > good for currency)

Thursday, January 19^th

12:30am AUD Employment Change (10.3K, > good for currency)
12:30am AUD Unemployment Rate (5.3%, < good for currency)
1:30pm USD Building Permits (0.68M, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Core CPI (0.1%, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (389K, < good for currency)
3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (11.3, > good for currency)

Friday, January 20^th

2:30am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (last 48.7)
9:30am GBP Retail Sales (0.6%, > good for currency)
12:00pm CAD Core CPI (-0.2%, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales (4.65M, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.2857, 1.2873/77, 1.2917, 1.2946, 1.2957, 1.2968, 1.2983, 1.3000, 1.3055/76, 1.3145 and 1.3197,
Above: 1.3211, 1.3241/58, 1.3281, 1.3334, 1.3362, 1.3433/95, 1.3546/68, 1.3614 and 1.3795/98.

Support:
Initial: 1.2665, 1.2643 and 1.2586.
Below: 1.2623, 1.2484, 1.2329 and 1.1876.

USDJPY: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 76.83, 77.00/13, 77.29/33, 77.48/49, 77.61/89, 78.06/16, 78.22, 78.28, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22 and 80.82.
Above: 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.

Support:
Initial: 76.41/66, 76.10, 75.94 and 75.70.
Below: 75.65, 75.56, plus 75.00 and 70.00 likely.

GBPUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5375, 1.5410, 1.5422, 1.5465/99, 1.5516, 1.5531/37 and 1.5557/85.
Above: , 1.5624/29, 1.5668, 1.5685/91, 1.5717, 1.5735/45, 1.5770/74 and 1.5868/90.

Support:
Initial: 1.5293, 1.5270/77, 1.5232, 1.5123 and 1.5000.
Below: 1.4947, 1.4782, 1.4769, 1.4474, 1.4345 and 1.4229.

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0384, 1.0444/98, 1.0608 and 1.0654.
Above: 1.0718/84, 1.1010 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0303, 1.0266, 1.0224/29, 1.0216, 1.0100/16, 1.0000/52, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9861/63 and 0.9732.
Below: 0.9689, 0.9661/67, 0.9651, 0.9620/27, 0.9536/41, 0.9500, 0.9486, 0.9386, 0.9341 and 0.9220.

USDCAD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0199, 1.0207/32, 1.0262/87, 1.0297, 1.0302, 1.0334/37, 1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506 and 1.0522.
Above: 1.0646/56, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756, 1.0785.1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000 and 1.1101/23.

Support:
Initial: 1.0172, 1.0105/42, 1.0026/78, 0.9969 and 0.9934.
Below: 0.9891, 0.9828/77, 0.9724/96, 0.9686 and 0.9645.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: and 0.7955, 0.7979 and 0.7996.
Above: 0.8066/93, 0.8109/90, 0.8240, 0.8571 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial: 0.7906, 0.7855/88, 0.7827/36, 0.7804/09, 0.7795, 0.7723/73, 0.7605/72, 0.7568 and 0.7500/52.
Below: 0.7404/67, 0.7369, 0.7342, 0.73210.7189, 0.7115, 0.7000, 0.6945/62, 0.6793 and 0.6560.

Book Review - Trade to Win by Thomas L. Busby

Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:29:26 -0500

The trading profession is known to have a high failure rate and to result in burn-out for the many that do succeed, but studies generally confirm that only a special “10%” of the trading community achieve success over the long-term and thrive in this high-stress environment. Tom Busby, the author of “Trade to Win”, is a member of this “10% Club” and more than willing in his book to share the secrets of his success and add insights that few instructional guidebooks ever touch upon. His work is not necessarily for beginners, but anyone that has attempted to trade on his own account will benefit.

High casualty rates are a known fact for newcomers to the trading genre, approaching 70% based on most studies. Knowledge, experience and emotional control are the factors for success, coupled with a step-by-step trading plan incorporating prudent risk and money management principles. These words of wisdom are typically espoused by all experienced traders, including Mr. Busby, but he goes one step further by revealing how to translate these factors into a truly disciplined approach to the market, the actual way that winning trades are produced on a consistent basis.

After preparation and education, the average beginner will search for a “secret” to winning, whether it be a unique combination of technical indicators or a highly touted automated trading system. Tom quickly dispels this “mission” as doomed to failure. There is no perfect trading system or set of indicators that will ensure success. Traders must learn to adapt to the market, which is ever changing, and modify their respective trading strategies. What works for one day, week or month may not work for the next period. Finding a favorable “set up” and “trigger” is not enough. The successful trader must work harder to move the odds in his favor. Successful trading is work, not intuitive gambling.

Tom Busby has been a professional trader and broker for several decades, going back to the “80’s” with such firms as Merrill Lynch and Smith Barney. In 1996, he founded the “Diversified Trading Institute” that has become one of the most successful trading schools in the world. Mr. Busby over his career has actively traded equities, futures, commodities, precious metals, ETFs, options and a number of other financial products. His curriculum is based on the disciplined approach that he developed for each of these markets based on a low-risk, highly consistent trading regimen.

“Trade to Win” is divided into three parts. The first section establishes a foundation for success, the second details a number of Tom’s successful trading strategies, and the last part focuses on the trader’s attitude that must be guided by discipline, risk management, and an understanding of trading psychology, all designed to produce the winner’s edge that will stand the test of time. Simply stated, trading is hard work that requires a definitive approach where the effort is focused on increasing your odds before your first position is ever taken.

The first part of Tom’s book is perhaps the most informative and helpful in understanding how to succeed in any trading market. It is often said that there are no shortcuts for experience in trading unless you can find an experienced mentor to guide your early development and get you started on the right path. Tom’s “method”, if it can be so termed, is all about timing and gauging the sentiment of the market. The better the foundation of favorable indicators, the better your results will be.

Tom believes that you must take only what the market gives you by effectively timing your entries and exits to take advantage of a forceful move in prices, whether up or down. Experience has told him that there are specific times in the 24-hour day when you should trade and other times that must be avoided. Within these time periods, care must be taken in assessing the nature of market action for the day, the month, and the year by tracking a number of key numbers that he euphemistically labels as the “Seven Sisters”, as well as a variety of market indicators. Each strategy must operate within this context. A seemingly opportune “set up” may be discarded if the numbers and indicators do not also line up.

There was a time in Tom’s career when he paid less attention to risk management. He relates how on one given day in 1987 he lost almost everything when the stock market crashed. His “method” again is to learn from your losses, adjust your approach, and hammer out the numbers until the odds are highly skewed in your favor. His specific strategies are a roadmap, and like most other successful traders, he has assigned very colorful names to each one, such as “The Squeaky Wheel”, “The Corvette Trade”, and “The Early Riser”. Interspersed throughout are pearls of wisdom like “never predict the market” or “some days, the best trading decision may be to stay in bed.”

Tom Busby does not “sugar coat” anything regarding the trading profession. If you are looking for the perfect trading system, Tom tells you not to waste your time. They do not exist, nor will they ever work because financial markets are always in flux. You must learn to be flexible and adapt your approach daily. Timing is everything, and building a broad set of numbers and indicators to support your decision-making process is the only way to be successful consistently in the markets. Take what the markets gives by joining favorable trends and never “fight the tape”. Learn from your losers, and let education guide your efforts. “Knowledge pays!”

Tom Busby’s book may only be 185 pages, but each paragraph is invaluable advice coming from a trader that has waged a lifelong battle with Wall Street. If you have a true desire to succeed over the long term as a trader, then Tom’s book will surely help you achieve that goal by improving your overall trading consistency and profits in the process. Accept your “amateur” status, and learn how to trade to win from this professional trader of long standing.

Weekly Forex Market Followup (January 9th - January 13th)

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 16:24:24 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of January 9th through January 13th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of January 9th through January 13th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

Monday, January 9^th

All Day JPY Bank Holiday
12:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.0% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
8:15am CHF Retail Sales 1.8% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Building Permits -3.6% versus -3.1% expected.
3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey noted that, "On balance, firms expect input
prices to rise at about the same pace over the next 12 months and output prices to rise at a slower rate. Inflation expectations are essentially unchanged." The currency rose.
9:45pm NZD Building Consents -6.4% versus last 11.2%. The currency rose.

Tuesday, January 10^th

12:30am AUD Building Approvals 8.4% versus 6.3% expected. The currency rose.
3:00am CNY Trade Balance 16.5B versus 8.3B expected.

Wednesday, January 11^th

9:30am GBP Trade Balance -8.6B versus -8.2B expected. The currency fell.
7:00pm USD Fed Beige Book noted that, "Upward price pressures and price increases were very limited during the reporting period. Reports from various Districts, including Boston, Atlanta, and Chicago, indicated that upward price pressures from rising commodity and input prices have eased substantially, with Boston noting that ‘even food prices have ceased rising." The currency rose overall.

Thursday, January 12^th

1:30am CNY CPI 4.1% versus 4.0% expected.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production -0.2% versus 0.0% expected.
12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 275B, as expected.
12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50%, as expected. The currency was unchanged.
12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00%, as expected.
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference noted that, "As expected, ongoing financial market tensions continue to dampen economic activity in the euro area, while, according to some recent survey indicators, there are tentative signs of a stabilisation in activity at low levels. The economic outlook remains subject to high uncertainty and substantial downside risks." The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales -0.2% versus 0.3% expected.
1:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.1% versus 0.3% expected.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 399K versus 370K expected. The currency fell overall.

Friday, January 13^th

9:30am GBP PPI Input -0.6% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance 1.1B versus -0.4B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Trade Balance -47.8B versus -44.6B expected.
2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 74.0 versus 70.8 expected. The currency rose overall.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.2693 open to a 1.2680 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 76.89 open to a 76.95 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.5423 open to a 1.5290 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0200 open to a 1.0289 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0275 open to a 1.0238 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.7791 open to a 0.7913 close.

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (January 9th - January 13th 2012)

Mon, 09 Jan 2012 14:14:59 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of January 9th – January 13th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, January 9^th

All Day JPY Bank Holiday
12:30am AUD Retail Sales (0.4%, > good for currency)
8:15am CHF Retail Sales (0.6%, > good for currency)
1:30pm CAD Building Permits (-3.1%, > good for currency)
3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey (hawkish = good for currency)
9:45pm NZD Building Consents (last 11.2%, > good for currency)

Tuesday, January 10^th

12:30am AUD Building Approvals (6.3%, > good for currency)
10th-13th CNY Trade Balance (8.3B, > good for currency)

Wednesday, January 11^th

9:30am GBP Trade Balance (-8.2B, > good for currency)
7:00pm USD Fed Beige Book (hawkish = good for currency)

Thursday, January 12^th

1:30am CNY CPI (4.0%, > good for currency)
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production (0.0%, > good for currency)
12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility (275B, > good for currency)
12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate (0.50%, > good for currency)
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate (1.00%, > good for currency)
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales (0.3%, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Retail Sales (0.3%, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (370K, > good for currency)

Friday, January 13^th

9:30am GBP PPI Input (0.1%, > good for currency)
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance (-0.4B, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Trade Balance (-44.6B, > good for currency)
2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (70.8, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.2857, 1.2873, 1.2917, 1.2946, 1.2957, 1.2968, 1.2983, 1.3000, 1.3055/76, 1.3145 and 1.3197,
Above: 1.3211, 1.3241/58, 1.3281, 1.3334, 1.3362, 1.3433/95, 1.3546/68, 1.3614 and 1.3795/98.

Support:
Initial: 1.2665, 1.2643 and 1.2586.
Below: 1.2484, 1.2329 and 1.1876.

USDJPY: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 77.00, 77.13, 77.29/33, 77.48/49, 77.61/89, 78.06/16, 78.22, 78.28, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22 and 80.82.
Above: 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.

Support:
Initial: 76.83, 76.57/61, 76.41, 76.10, 75.94 and 75.70.
Below: 75.65, 75.56, plus 75.00 and 70.00 likely.

GBPUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5465, 1.5483, 1.5516, 1.5531/37, 1.5557/85, 1.5624/29, 1.5668, 1.5685/91, 1.5717, 1.5735/45, 1.5770/74 and 1.5868/90.
Above: 1.5912/77, 1.6000, 1.6093, 1.6130/65, 1.6206, 1.6259, 1.6332/47, 1.6434/73, 1.6500/98 and 1.6616.

Support:
Initial: 1.5422, 1.5410, 1.5326/75, 1.5326, 1.5293, 1.5270, 1.5123 and 1.5000.
Below: 1.4947, 1.4782, 1.4769, 1.4474, 1.4345 and 1.4229.

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0224/29, 1.0266, 1.0303/84 and 1.0444/98.
Above: 1.0608, 1.0654, 1.0718/84, 1.1010 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0216, 1.0100/16, 1.0042/52, 1.0027, 1.0000, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9861/63 and 0.9732.
Below: 0.9689, 0.9661/67, 0.9651, 0.9620/27, 0.9536/41, 0.9500, 0.9486, 0.9386, 0.9341 and 0.9220.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0262/87, 1.0297, 1.0302, 1.0334/37, 1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506 and 1.0522.
Above: 1.0646/56, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756, 1.0785.1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000 and 1.1101/23.

Support:
Initial: 1.0232, 1.0221, 1.0207, 1.0199, 1.0172, 1.0105/42, 1.0026/78, 0.9969 and 0.9934.
Below: 0.9891, 0.9828/77, 0.9724/96, 0.9686 and 0.9645.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.7855/59, 0.7876/88, 0.79060 and 0.7955/96.
Above: 0.8066/93, 0.8109/90, 0.8240, 0.8571 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial: 0.7827/36, 0.7804/09, 0.7795, 0.7773, 0.7761, 0.7741, 0.7723, 0.7605/72, 0.7568 and 0.7500/52.
Below: 0.7404/67, 0.7369, 0.7342, 0.73210.7189, 0.7115, 0.7000, 0.6945/62, 0.6793 and 0.6560.

Weekly Forex Market Followup (January 2 - January 6 2012)

Mon, 09 Jan 2012 14:03:31 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of January 2nd through January 6th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of January 2nd through January 6th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

Sunday, January 1^st

1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.3, as expected.
Bank Holidays in Australia and New Zealand.

Monday, January 2^nd

Bank Holidays in Japan, Switzerland, France, Italy, Britain, Canada, New Zealand and the United States.

Tuesday, January 3^rd

Bank Holidays in China and Japan.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 49.6 versus 47.4 expected. The GBP rose.
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.9 versus 53.3 expected.
7:15pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that, "participants continued to anticipate that economic activity would expand at a moderate rate in the coming quarters and that, consequently, the unemployment rate would decline only gradually. The factors that participants cited as likely to restrain the pace of the economic expansion included an expectation that financial markets would remain unsettled until the fiscal and banking issues in the euro area were more fully addressed." The USD fell overall.

Wednesday, January 4^th

9:30am GBP Construction PMI 53.2 versus 51.9 expected. The GBP fell.

Thursday, January 5^th

12:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.38B versus 1.68B expected. The AUD fell.
9:30am GBP Services PMI 54.0 versus 51.6 expected. The GBP fell.
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 325K versus 177K expected.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 372K versus 375K expected.
3:00pm CHF SNB Chairman Hildebrand said on compliance issues regarding his wife’s currency trades that, "So long as I have the confidence of the government and the bank council, stepping down is not an issue for me." The CHF fell.
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 63.5 versus 56.7 expected. The CAD fell.
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.6 versus 53.1 expected. The USD rose overall.

Friday, January 6^th

Bank Holiday in Italy.
8:00am GBP Halifax HPI -0.9% versus last -1.0%. The GBP fell.
8:10am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 254.2B versus last 229.3B.
8:15am CHF CPI -0.2% versus -0.1% expected. The CHF fell.
12:00pm CAD Employment Change 17.5K versus 15.3K expected.
12:00pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.5% versus 7.4% expected. The CAD fell.
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 200K versus 153K expected.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 8.5% versus 8.7% expected. The USD rose.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.2924 open to a 1.2724 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 76.91 open to a 77.07 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.5510 open to a 1.5426 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0216 open to a 1.0237 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0190 open to a 1.0230 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.7773 open to a 0.7815 close.

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (January 2 - January 6 2012)

Tue, 03 Jan 2012 10:10:08 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of January 2^nd – January 6^th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Sunday, January 1^st

1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI (50.3)
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday

Monday, January 2^nd

All Day JPY Bank Holiday
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French and Italian Bank Holidays
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
All Day NZD Bank Holiday

Tuesday, January 3^rd

All Day CNY Bank Holiday
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (47.4, > good for GBP)
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (53.3, > good for USD)
7:15pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for USD)

Wednesday, January 4^th

9:30am GBP Construction PMI (51.9, > good for GBP)

Thursday, January 5^th

12:30am AUD Trade Balance (1.68B, > good for AUD)
Tentative CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (last 229.3B, < good for CHF)
5th-12th GBP Halifax HPI (last -0.9%, > good for GBP)
9:30am GBP Services PMI (51.6, > good for GBP)
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (177K, > good for USD)
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (375K, < good for USD)
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI (56.7, > good for CAD)
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.1, > good for USD)

Friday, January 6^th

All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
8:15am CHF CPI (-0.1%, > good for CHF)
12:00pm CAD Employment Change (15.3K, > good for CAD)
12:00pm CAD Unemployment Rate (7.4%, < good for CAD)
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls (153K, > good for USD)
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate (8.7%, < good for USD)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.2946, 1.2957, 1.2968, 1.2983, 1.3000, 1.3055, 1.3145, 1.3197, 1.3211, 1.3241/58, 1.3281, 1.3334 and 1.3362.
Above: 1.3433, 1.3458, 1.3486, 1.3495, 1.3546/68, 1.3614, 1.3795/98, 1.3813/27, 1.3854/58 and 1.3868.

Support:
Initial: 1.2917, 1.2873 and 1.2857.
Below: 1.2643, 1.2586 and 1.1876.

USDJPY: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 77.00, 77.13, 77.29, 77.48/49, 77.61/89, 78.06/16, 78.22, 78.28, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22 and 80.82.
Above: 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.

Support:
Initial: 76.89, 76.83, 76.57, 76.41, 76.10, 75.94 and 75.70.
Below: 75.65, 75.56, plus 75.00 and 70.00 likely.

GBPUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5516, 1.5531/37, 1.5557/85, 1.5624/29, 1.5685/91, 1.5717, 1.5735/45, 1.5770/74, 1.5868/90, 1.5912/19, 1.5932, 1.5945 and 1.5977.
Above: 1.6000, 1.6093, 1.6130/65, 1.6206, 1.6259, 1.6332/47, 1.6434/73, 1.6500/98 and 1.6616.

Support:
Initial: 1.5483, 1.5465, 1.5422, 1.5410, 1.5373, 1.5339/60, 1.5326, 1.5293, 1.5270, 1.5123 and 1.5000.
Below: 1.4947, 1.4782, 1.4769, 1.4474, 1.4345 and 1.4229.

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0216, 1.0224/29, 1.0266, 1.0303/78 and 1.0444/98.
Above: 1.0608, 1.0654, 1.0718/84, 1.1010 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0100/16, 1.0042/52, 1.0027, 1.0000, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9861/63, 0.9732, 0.9689, 0.9661/67, 0.9651, 0.9620/27, 0.9536/41, 0.9500.
Below: 0.9486, 0.9386, 0.9341 and 0.9220.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0207, 1.0221, 1.0232, 1.0262/87, 1.0297, 1.0302, 1.0334/37, 1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506 and 1.0522.
Above: 1.0646/56, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756, 1.0785.1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000 and 1.1101/23.

Support:
Initial: 1.0199, 1.0172, 1.0105/42, 1.0026/78, 0.9969 and 0.9934.
Below: 0.9891, 0.9828/77, 0.9724/96, 0.9686 and 0.9645.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.7795, 0.7804/09, 0.7827/36, 0.7855/59 and 0.7878/88.
Above: 0.7955/96, 0.8066/93, 0.8109/90 and 0.8240.

Support:
Initial: 0.7773, 0.7761, 0.7741, 0.7723, 0.7605/72, 0.7568, 0.7500/52, 0.7404/67, 0.7369, 0.7342 and 0.7321.
Below: 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7000, 0.6945/62, 0.6793 and 0.6560.

Weekly Forex Market Followup (December 26th - December 30th 2011)

Mon, 02 Jan 2012 05:33:49 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of December 26th through December 30th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of December 26th through December 30th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

Monday, December 26^th

11:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, "At the unscheduled Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Bank of Japan, in cooperation with the aforementioned central banks, decided to take measures to address recent pressures in global money markets. Specifically, interest rates on the fixed-rate U.S. Dollar funds-supplying operations currently conducted by the Bank of Japan will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points, for operations conducted from December 5.” The JPY rose slightly.

Tuesday, December 27^th

7:00am CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.81 versus last 0.91. The CHF rose slightly.
2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI -3.4% versus -3.2% expected.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 64.5 versus 58.5 expected. The USD fell overall.
11:30pm JPY Household Spending -3.2% versus -1.1% expected.
11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI -0.3% versus -0.4% expected.
11:50pm JPY Preliminary Industrial Production -2.6% versus -0.7% expected.
11:50pm JPY Retail Sales -2.3% versus 0.1% expected. The JPY rose.

Wednesday, December 28^th

1:30am JPY Average Cash Earnings -1.0% versus 0.1% expected. The JPY fell.
10:30am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 0.01 versus 0.25 expected. The CHF fell.
Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report noted that, "China's long-standing pattern of reserve accumulation, the persistence of its current account surplus and the incomplete appreciation, especially given rapid productivity growth in the traded goods sector, indicate that the real exchange rate of the renminbi is persistently misaligned and remains substantially undervalued." The USD rose.

Thursday, December 29^th

All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI 0.7% versus 0.8% expected.
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 2.0% versus 2.5% expected. The EUR rose.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 381K versus 370K expected.
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 62.5 versus 60.4 expected.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 7.3% versus 1.4% expected.
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.9M versus last -10.6M. The USD was mixed.

Friday, December 30^th

12:30am AUD Private Sector Credit 0.3%, as expected. The AUD rose.
2:30am CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 48.7 versus last 49.0.
7:00am GBP Nationwide HPI -0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The GBP rose.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.3046 open to a 1.2981 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 77.99 open to a 77.07 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.5596 open to a 1.5540 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0158 open to a 1.0209 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0210 open to a 1.0161 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.7734 open to a 0.7805 close.

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (December 26th - December 30th 2011)

Wed, 28 Dec 2011 13:41:00 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of December 26^th– December 30^th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Sunday, December 25^th

All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday

Monday, December 26^th

All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
11:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for JPY)

Tuesday, December 27^th

7:00am CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (last 0.91, > good for CHF)
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (-3.2%, > good for USD)
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence (58.5, > good for USD)
11:30pm JPY Household Spending (-1.1%, > good for JPY)
11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI (-0.4%, > good for JPY)
11:50pm JPY Preliminary Industrial Production (-0.7%, > good for JPY)
11:50pm JPY Retail Sales (0.1%, > good for JPY)

Wednesday, December 28^th

1:30am JPY Average Cash Earnings (0.1%, > good for JPY)
10:30am CHF KOF Economic Barometer (0.25, > good for CHF)
Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report (hawkish = good for USD)

Thursday, December 29^th

All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI (0.8%, > good for EUR)
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply (2.5%, > good for EUR)
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims (370K, < good for USD)
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI (60.4, > good for USD)
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales (1.4%, > good for USD)
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last -10.6M, > good for USD)

Friday, December 30^th

12:30am AUD Private Sector Credit (0.3%, > good for AUD)
2:30am CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (last 49.0)
7:00am GBP Nationwide HPI (0.3%, > good for GBP)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3145, 1.3197, 1.3211, 1.3241/58, 1.3281, 1.3334, 1.3362, 1.3433, 1.3458, 1.3486, 1.3495 and 1.3546/68.
Above: 1.3614, 1.3795/98, 1.3813/27, 1.3854/58, 1.3868, 1.3973, 1.4054, 1.4246 and 1.4548.

Support:
Initial: 1.3055, 1.3000, 1.2983, 1.2968, 1.2957, 1.2946 and 1.2917.
Below: 1.2873, 1.2643, 1.2586 and 1.1876.

USDJPY: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 78.06/16, 78.22, 78.28, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22 and 80.82.
Above: 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.

Support:
Initial: 77.61/89, 77.48/49, 77.29, 77.13, 77.00, 76.83, 76.57, 76.41, 76.10, 75.94 and 75.70.
Below: 75.65, 75.56, plus 75.00 and 70.00 likely.

GBPUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5685, 1.5691, 1.5717, 1.5735/45, 1.5770/74, 1.5868/90, 1.5912/19, 1.5932, 1.5945 and 1.5977.
Above: 1.6000, 1.6093, 1.6130/65, 1.6206, 1.6259, 1.6332/47, 1.6434/73, 1.6500/98 and 1.6616.

Support:
Initial: 1.5624/29, 1.5557/85, 1.5531/37, 1.5516, 1.5483, 1.5465, 1.5422, 1.5410, 1.5373, 1.5339/55, 1.5326, 1.5293, 1.5270, 1.5123 and 1.5000.
Below: 1.4947, 1.4782, 1.4769, 1.4474, 1.4345 and 1.4229.

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0216, 1.0224/29, 1.0303/78 and 1.0444/98.
Above: 1.0608, 1.0654, 1.0718/84, 1.1010 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0100/16, 1.0045/52, 1.0027, 1.0000, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9861/63, 0.9732, 0.9689, 0.9661/67, 0.9651, 0.9620/27, 0.9536/41, 0.9500.
Below: 0.9486, 0.9386, 0.9341 and 0.9220.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0199, 1.0207, 1.0221, 1.0232, 1.0262/87, 1.0297, 1.0302, 1.0334/37, 1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506 and 1.0522.
Above: 1.0646/56, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756, 1.0785.1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000 and 1.1101/23.

Support:
Initial: 1.0172, 1.0105/42, 1.0026/78, 0.9969 and 0.9934.
Below: 0.9891, 0.9828/77, 0.9724/96, 0.9686 and 0.9645.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.7741, 0.7761, 0.7773, 0.7795, 0.7804, 0.7827/36, 0.7855/59 and 0.7878/88.
Above: 0.7955/96, 0.8066/93, 0.8109/90 and 0.8240.

Support:
Initial: 0.7723, 0.7605/72, 0.7568, 0.7500/52, 0.7404/67, 0.7369, 0.7342 and 0.7321.
Below: 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7000, 0.6945/62, 0.6793 and 0.6560.

Weekly Forex Market Followup (December 19 - December 23rd 2011)

Fri, 23 Dec 2011 15:52:07 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of December 19^th through December 23^rd

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of December 19^th through December 23^rd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

Monday, December 19^th

12:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 16.9 versus last 18.3 expected. The NZD fell.
3:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, "We have decided on three-year refinancing operations to support the supply of credit to the euro area economy. These measures address the risk that persistent financial markets tensions could affect the capacity of euro area banks to obtain refinancing over longer horizons." The EUR fell.

Tuesday, December 20^th

12:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, "The strains in European interbank markets also intensified in November, with an increasing number of banks effectively shut off from new funding and having to rely instead on the European Central Bank (ECB). Some banks also appeared to be running short of the collateral necessary to obtain funding from the ECB and were undertaking collateral swaps with non-bank institutions or turning to their national central bank." The AUD rose.
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 107.2 versus 106.2 expected. The EUR rose.
12:00pm CAD Core CPI 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The CAD rose.
1:30pm USD Building Permits 0.68M versus 0.63M expected. The USD fell overall.
9:45pm NZD Current Account -4.60B versus last -0.92B expected. The NZD rose.

Wednesday, December 21^st

3:16am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that, "Improvement in business sentiment has slowed on the whole despite steady improvement in domestic demand-oriented sectors. Meanwhile, although global financial markets remain under heavy strain, financial conditions in Japan have continued to ease."
3:16am JPY Overnight Call Rate Decision <0.10%, as expected.
7:11am JPY BOJ Press Conference noted that, "A delay in dealing with Europe's crisis may have a severe impact on the global economy. We must prevent this from happening at all cost." The JPY fell.
9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes. The MPC voted 0-0-9, as expected. They also noted that, "There had been modest upside news on the near-term prospects for the United States but a further deterioration in euro-area indicators and continued slowing in emerging market economies."
9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 15.2B versus 13.5B expected. The GBP rose slightly.
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales 0.7% versus 0.4% expected. The CAD rose.
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 4.42M versus 5.04M expected. The USD fell overall.
9:45pm NZD GDP 0.8% versus last 0.1% expected. The NZD rose.

Thursday, December 22^nd

9:30am GBP Current Account -15.2B versus -5.2B expected. The GBP rose slightly.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 364K versus 376K expected. The USD fell overall.
4:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi failed to show at a key press conference. The EUR was unchanged.

Friday, December 23^rd

All Day JPY Bank Holiday
1:30pm CAD GDP 0.0% versus 0.1% expected. The CAD rose.
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 0.3% versus 0.5% expected.
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 315K versus 314K expected. The USD was mixed.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.3033 open to a 1.3036 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 77.77 open to a 78.12 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.5524 open to a 1.5624 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.9967 open to a 1.0150 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.0389 open to a 1.0193 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.7620 open to a 0.7737 close.

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (December 19th - December 23rd 2011)

Mon, 19 Dec 2011 11:36:28 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of December 19^th– December 23^rd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, December 19^th

12:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (last 18.3, > good for NZD)
3:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi speaks (hawkish = good for EUR).

Tuesday, December 20^th

12:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for AUD).
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate (106.2, > good for EUR)
12:00pm CAD Core CPI (0.2%, > good for CAD)
1:30pm USD Building Permits (0.63M, > good for USD)
9:45pm NZD Current Account (last -0.92B, > good for NZD)

Wednesday, December 21^st

Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement (hawkish = good for JPY)
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate Decision (<0.10%, > good for JPY)
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference (hawkish = good for JPY)
9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9, hawkish = good for GBP)
9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (13.5B, < good for GBP)
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales (0.4%, > good for CAD)
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales (5.04M, > good for USD)
9:45pm NZD GDP (last 0.1%, > good for NZD)

Thursday, December 22^nd

9:30am GBP Current Account (-5.2B, > good for GBP)
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (376K, < good for USD)

Friday, December 23^rd

All Day JPY Bank Holiday
1:30pm CAD GDP (0.1%, > good for CAD)
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders (0.5%, > good for USD)
3:00pm USD New Home Sales (314K, > good for USD)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3055, 1.3145, 1.3211, 1.3241/58, 1.3281, 1.3334, 1.3362, 1.3433, 1.3458, 1.3486, 1.3495 and 1.3546/68.
Above: 1.3614, 1.3795/98, 1.3813/27, 1.3854/58, 1.3868, 1.3973, 1.4054, 1.4246 and 1.4548.

Support:
Initial: 1.3000, 1.2983, 1.2968, 1.2957, 1.2946 and 1.2917.
Below: 1.2873, 1.2643, 1.2586 and 1.1876.

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 78.06/16, 78.28, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22 and 80.82.
Above: 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.

Support:
Initial: 77.73/89, 77.61, 77.48/49, 77.29, 77.13, 77.00, 76.83, 76.57, 76.41, 76.10, 75.94 and 75.70.
Below: 75.65, 75.56, plus 75.00 and 70.00 likely.

GBPUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5531/37, 1.5557/85, 1.5624/29, 1.5685, 1.5691, 1.5717, 1.5735/45, 1.5770, 1.5868/90, 1.5912/19, 1.5932, 1.5945 and 1.5977.
Above: 1.6000, 1.6093, 1.6130/65, 1.6206, 1.6259, 1.6332/47, 1.6434/73, 1.6500/98 and 1.6616.

Support:
Initial: 1.5516, 1.5483, 1.5465, 1.5422, 1.5410, 1.5373, 1.5339/55, 1.5326, 1.5293, 1.5270, 1.5123 and 1.5000.
Below: 1.4947, 1.4782, 1.4769, 1.4474, 1.4345 and 1.4229.

AUDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.9925/83, 1.0000, 1.0027, 1.0045/52, 1.0100/16, 1.0156/62, 1.0224/29, 1.0303/78 and 1.0444/98.
Above: 1.0608, 1.0654, 1.0718/841.1010 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 0.9900, 0.9861/63, 0.9732, 0.9689, 0.9661/67, 0.9651, 0.9620/27, 0.9536/41, 0.9500.
Below: 0.9486, 0.9386, 0.9341 and 0.9220.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756 and 1.0785.
Above: 1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000 and 1.1101/23.

Support:
Initial: 1.0334/37, 1.0302, 1.0297, 1.0262/87, 1.0232, 1.0221, 1.0207, 1.0172/99, 1.0105/42, 1.0026/78, 0.9969 and 0.9934.
Below: 0.9891, 0.9828/77, 0.9724/96, 0.9686 and 0.9645.

NZDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.7605/72, 0.7723/41, 0.7761, 0.7795, 0.7804, 0.7827/36, 0.7855/59 and 0.7878/88.
Above: 0.7955/96, 0.8066/93, 0.8109/90 and 0.8240.

Support:
Initial: 0.7568, 0.7500/52, 0.7404/67, 0.7369, 0.7342 and 0.7321.
Below: 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7000, 0.6945/62, 0.6793 and 0.6560.

Weekly Forex Market Followup (December 12th - December 16th 2011)

Fri, 16 Dec 2011 16:27:41 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of December 12th through December 16th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of December 12th through December 16th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, December 12th

12:30am AUD Home Loans 0.7% versus 0.1% expected.
12:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.60B versus 2.03B expected. The AUD fell.
1:00pm GBP BOE Governor King said in a speech to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research that, "central to any solution is a problem that has not been resolved since the Bretton Woods conference of 1944. Namely, the asymmetric pressure on, and responsibility of deficit and surplus countries to adjust their spending patterns." The GBP fell.

Tuesday, December 13th

9:30am GBP CPI 4.8%, as expected. The GBP fell.
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -53.8 versus -55.7 expected. The EUR fell.
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales 0.2% versus 0.5% expected.
1:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.2% versus 0.6% expected.
7:15pm USD FOMC Statement noted that, "Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate." The USD rose overall.

Wednesday, December 14th

9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 3.0K versus 17.30-K expected. The GBP fell slightly.

Thursday, December 15th

2:30am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.0 versus 47.7 expected.
8:30am CHF Libor Rate <0.25%, as expected.
8:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment noted that, "The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will continue to enforce the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro with the utmost determination. It is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities."
8:30am CHF SNB Press Conference. Philipp Hildebrand, SNB Chairman, stated that, “We expect no continuous decline in price levels … The floor has quite clearly reduced the threat of deflationary developments”. The CHF rose.
9:30am GBP Retail Sales -0.4% versus -0.2% expected. The GBP rose.
1:30pm USD PPI 0.3% versus 0.3% expected.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 366K versus 389K expected..
2:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 4.8B versus 53.4B expected.
3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10.3 versus 5.1 expected. The USD fell overall.

Friday, December 16th

1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.2%, as expected. The USD fell overall.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.3380 open to a 1.2945 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Virtually unchanged from a 77.60 open to a 77.62 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.5639 open to a 1.5519 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0194 open to a 0.9988 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.0200 open to a 1.0366 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.7735 open to a 0.7635 close.

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (December 12th - December 16th 2011)

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 11:02:54 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of December 12^th– December 16^th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, December 12^th

12:30am AUD Home Loans (0.1%, > good for AUD)
12:30am AUD Trade Balance (2.03B, > good for AUD)
Tentative GBP BOE Governor King speaks (hawkish = good for GBP)

Tuesday, December 13^th

9:30am GBP CPI (4.8%, > good for GBP)
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (-55.7, > good for EUR)
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales (0.5%, > good for USD)
1:30pm USD Retail Sales (0.6%, > good for USD)
7:15pm USD FOMC Statement (hawkish = good for USD)

Wednesday, December 14^th

9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change (17.3K, < good for GBP)

Thursday, December 15^th

2:30am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (47.7)
8:30am CHF Libor Rate (<0.25%, > good for CHF)
8:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (hawkish = good for CHF)
8:30am CHF SNB Press Conference (hawkish = good for CHF)
9:30am GBP Retail Sales (-0.2%, > good for GBP)
1:30pm USD PPI (0.3%, > good for USD)
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (389K, < good for USD)
2:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases (53.4B, > good for USD)
3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (5.1, > good for USD)

Friday, December 16^th

1:30pm USD Core CPI (0.2%, > good for USD)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3433, 1.3458, 1.3486, 1.3495, 1.3546/68, 1.3614, 1.3795/98 and 1.3813/27.
Above: 1.3854/58, 1.3868, 1.3973, 1.4054, 1.4246 and 1.4548.

Support:
Initial: 1.3362, 1.3334, 1.3281, 1.3241/58, 1.3211, 1.3145, 1.3055 and 1.3000.
Below: 1.2968, 1.2917, 1.2873, 1.2643 and 1.2586.

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 77.78/89, 78.06/10, 78.28, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22 and 80.82.
Above: 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.

Support:
Initial: 77.48/49, 77.29, 77.13, 77.00, 76.83, 76.57, 76.41, 76.10, 75.94 and 75.70.
Below: 75.65, 75.56, plus 75.00 and 70.00 likely.

GBPUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5685, 1.5691, 1.5717, 1.5735/45, 1.5770, 1.5868/90, 1.5912/19, 1.5932, 1.5945 and 1.5977.
Above: 1.6000, 1.6093, 1.6130/65, 1.6206, 1.6259, 1.6332/47, 1.6434/73, 1.6500/98 and 1.6616.

Support:
Initial: 1.5624, 1.5561/85, 1.5516/31, 1.5483, 1.5422, 1.5373, 1.5339/55, 1.5326, 1.5293, 1.5270, 1.5123 and 1.5000.
Below: 1.4947, 1.4782, 1.4769, 1.4474, 1.4345 and 1.4229.

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0229, 1.0303/78, 1.0444/98, 1.0608, 1.0654 and 1.0718/84.
Above: 1.1010 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0156, 1.0100/16, 1.0048/52, 1.0000, 0.9925/83, 0.9863 and 0.9732.
Below: 0.9689, 0.9661/67, 0.9651, 0.9620/27, 0.9536/41, 0.9500, 0.9486, 0.9386, 0.9341 and 0.9220.

USDCAD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0172/99, 1.0207, 1.0221, 1.0262/87, 1.0302, 1.0337, 1.0417, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756 and 1.0785.
Above: 1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000 and 1.1101/23.

Support:
Initial: 1.0105/42, 1.0026/78, 0.9969 and 0.9934.
Below: 0.9891, 0.9828/77, 0.9724/96, 0.9686 and 0.9645.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.7761, 0.7795, 0.7804, 0.7827/36, 0.7855/59 and 0.7878/88.
Above: 0.7955/96, 0.8066/93, 0.8109/90 and 0.8240.

Support:
Initial: 0.7723/41, 0.7605/72, 0.7500/52, 0.7404/67, 0.7369, 0.7342 and 0.7321.
Below: 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7000, 0.6945/62, 0.6793 and 0.6560.

Weekly Forex Market Followup (December 5th - December 9th 2011)

Fri, 09 Dec 2011 12:01:50 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of December 5th through December 9th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of December 5th through December 9th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

Monday, December 5^th

12:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements 0.0% versus last -0.7%. The AUD rose.
9:30am GBP Services PMI 52.1 versus 50.6 expected. The GBP rose.
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.0 versus 53.6 expected. The USD mostly fell.

Tuesday, December 6^th

3:30am AUD Cash Rate 4.25%, as expected.
3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement. Governor Glenn Stevens noted that, "The sovereign credit and banking problems in Europe, to which European governments are still seeking to craft a full response, are likely to weigh on economic activity there over the period ahead. Financial markets have experienced considerable turbulence, and financing conditions have become much more difficult, especially in Europe.” The AUD fell.
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 229.3B versus last 242.7B.
8:00am GBP Halifax HPI -0.9% versus last 1.2%. The GBP fell.
8:15am CHF CPI -0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The CHF fell.
1:30pm CAD Building Permits 11.9% versus 3.2% expected.
2:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement noted that, "In Canada, the economic expansion is proceeding largely as projected, although the expected rotation of demand is somewhat slower than had been anticipated. Household spending remains solid and business investment robust. Net exports remain weak, reflecting modest U.S. demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, particularly the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar. Despite increased global risk aversion, financial conditions in Canada remain very stimulative and private credit growth is strong."
2:00pm CAD Overnight Rate 1.00%, as expected.
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 59.9 versus 55.1 expected. The CAD rose.

Wednesday, December 7^th

12:30am AUD GDP 1.0% versus 1.2% expected. The AUD rose.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production -0.7% versus -0.1% expected. The GBP rose.
8:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 2.50%, as expected.
8:00pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference. Deputy Governor Grant Spencer said that, "Covered bonds can provide banks with access to a stable funding source, which helps support system stability during times of severe disruption in international markets."
8:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement. Governor Alan Bollard noted that, “Global developments are having some negative impact on New Zealand, though to date it has been limited. Business confidence has declined and investment spending is likely to remain weak for some time." The NZD was unchanged.

Thursday, December 8^th

12:30am AUD Employment Change -6.3K versus 10.6K expected.
12:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.3% versus 5.2% expected. The AUD fell.
12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 275B, as expected.
12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50%, as expected. The GBP fell.
12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00%, as expected.
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 181K versus 203K expected. The CAD fell.
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference. President Mario Draghi stated that, "The intensified financial market tensions are continuing to dampen economic activity in the euro area and the outlook remains subject to high uncertainty and substantial downside risks. In such an environment, cost, wage and price pressures in the euro area should remain modest over the policy-relevant horizon." The EUR fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 381K versus 397K expected. The USD rose overall.

Friday, December 9^th

1:30am CNY CPI 4.2% versus 4.6% expected.
All Day EUR EU Economic Summit. German Chancellor Merkel stated that, "This is a breakthrough to a union of stability. The fiscal union will be developed step by step. We will use the crisis as a chance for a new beginning." The EUR rose.
9:30am GBP PPI Input 0.1% versus 0.3% expected. The GBP rose slightly.
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -0.9B versus 0.8B expected. The CAD rose slightly.
1:30pm USD Trade Balance -43.5B, as expected.
2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 67.7 versus 65.6 expected. The USD fell.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.3422 open to a 1.3352 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 78.03 open to a 77.65 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.5624 open to a 1.5623 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0252 open to a 1.0172 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0165 open to a 1.0222 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.7809 open to a 0.7720 close.

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (December 5th - December 9th 2011)

Mon, 05 Dec 2011 09:43:44 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of December 5^th– December 9^th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, December 5^th

12:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (last -0.7%)
9:30am GBP Services PMI (50.6)
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.6)

Tuesday, December 6^th

3:30am AUD Cash Rate (4.25%)
3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (last 242.7B)
6th-7th GBP Halifax HPI (last 1.2%)
8:15am CHF CPI (0.1%)
1:30pm CAD Building Permits (3.2%)
2:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
2:00pm CAD Overnight Rate (1.00%)
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI (55.1)

Wednesday, December 7^th

12:30am AUD GDP (1.2%)
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production (-0.1%)
8:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate (2.50%)
8:00pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference
8:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement

Thursday, December 8^th

12:30am AUD Employment Change (10.6K)
12:30am AUD Unemployment Rate (5.2%)
12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility (275B)
12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate (0.50%)
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate (1.25%)
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts (203K)
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (397K)

Friday, December 9^th

1:30am CNY CPI (4.6%)
All Day EUR EU Economic Summit
9:30am GBP PPI Input (0.3%)
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance (0.8B)
1:30pm USD Trade Balance (-43.5B)
2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (65.6)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3495, 1.3546/68, 1.3614, 1.3795/98 and 1.3813/27.
Above: 1.3854/58, 1.3868, 1.3973, 1.4054, 1.4246 and 1.4548.

Support:
Initial: 1.3362, 1.3333, 1.3241/58, 1.3211, 1.3145, 1.3055 and 1.3000.
Below: 1.2968, 1.2917, 1.2873, 1.2643 and 1.2586.

USDJPY: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 78.28, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22 and 80.82.
Above: 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.

Support:
Initial: 77.78/89, 77.48, 77.29, 77.00, 76.83, 76.57, 76.41, 76.10, 75.94 and 75.70.
Below: 75.65, 75.56, plus 75.00 and 70.00 likely.

GBPUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5624/85, 1.5691, 1.5745, 1.5868/90, 1.5912/19, 1.5932, 1.5945 and 1.5977.
Above: 1.6000, 1.6093, 1.6130/65, 1.6206, 1.6259, 1.6332/47, 1.6434/73, 1.6500/98 and 1.6616.

Support:
Initial: 1.5516/31, 1.5483, 1.5422, 1.5373, 1.5339/55, 1.5326, 1.5293, 1.5270, 1.5123 and 1.5000.
Below: 1.4947, 1.4782, 1.4769, 1.4474, 1.4345 and 1.4229.

AUDUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0229, 1.0303/70, 1.0444/98, 1.0608, 1.0654 and 1.0718/84.
Above: 1.1010 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0184, 1.0100/16, 1.0052, 1.0000, 0.9925/83, 0.9863 and 0.9732.
Below: 0.9689, 0.9661/67, 0.9651, 0.9620/27, 0.9536/41, 0.9500, 0.9486, 0.9386, 0.9341 and 0.9220.

USDCAD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0221, 1.0262/87, 1.0302, 1.0337, 1.0417, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669, 1.0742, 1.0756 and 1.0785.
Above: 1.0853, 1.0868, 1.1000 and 1.1101/23.

Support:
Initial: 1.0172/99, 1.0132/42, 1.0105, 1.0026/78, 0.9969 and 0.9934.
Below: 0.9891, 0.9828/77, 0.9724/96, 0.9686 and 0.9645.

NZDUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 0.7804, 0.7836, 0.7855/59 and 0.7881/88.
Above: 0.7955/96, 0.8066/93, 0.8109/90 and 0.8240.

Support:
Initial: 0.7795, 0.7761, 0.7723/41, 0.7605/72, 0.7500/52, 0.7404/67, 0.7369, 0.7342 and 0.7321.
Below: 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7000, 0.6945/62, 0.6793 and 0.6560.

Weekly Forex Market Followup (November 28th - December 2nd 2011)

Fri, 02 Dec 2011 11:26:57 -0500

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of November 28^th through December 2^nd

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of November 28^th through December 2^nd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

Monday, November 28^th

12:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 18.3 versus last 13.2. The NZD rose.
3:00pm GBP Inflation Report Hearings included testimony from BOE Governor King that, “I don't think it's as bad here as it is in the euro area economy, where ... the deleveraging of euro area banks is leading to early signs of a credit crunch, with concerns that it will get worse”. The GBP rose.
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 307K versus 313K expected. The USD fell.

Tuesday, November 29^th

7:00am GBP Nationwide HPI +0.4% versus -0.1% expected. The GBP rose.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 56.0 versus 43.8 expected. The USD was mixed.
9:45pm NZD Building Consents +11.2% versus last -17.1%. The NZD rose.

Wednesday, November 30^th

12:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure 12.3% versus 8.2% expected. The AUD rose.
All Day EUR The ECOFIN Meetings were held at which it was agreed to use the European Financial Stability Facility to provide a 20-30% bailout to investors who purchase new debt from financially challenged Eurozone countries. The EUR rose.
10:30am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 0.35 versus 0.66 expected. The CHF rose.
1:00pm USD The Federal Reserve announced that it and other major central banks would reduce the pricing on existing temporary U.S. Dollar liquidity swaps by 50bps equal to 50 bps over the U.S. Dollar Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rate.
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 206K versus 131K expected.
1:30pm CAD GDP 0.2%, as expected. The CAD rose.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 10.4% versus 1.3% expected. The USD fell.

Thursday, December 1^st

12:30am AUD Building Approvals -10.7% versus 3.6% expected.
12:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.2% versus 0.4% expected. The AUD fell.
1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 10.4% versus 49.8 expected.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 47.6 versus 47.2 expected. The GBP fell mildly.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 402K versus 390K expected.
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.7 versus 51.6 expected. The USD rose.

Friday, December 2^nd

8:15am CHF Retail Sales -0.2% versus 1.2% expected. The CHF fell.
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 52.3 versus 52.2 expected. The GBP fell.
12:00pm CAD Employment Change -18.6 versus 17.2K expected.
12:00pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.4% versus 7.3% expected. The CAD fell.
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 120K versus 119K expected.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 8.6% versus 9.0% expected. The USD rose.

Forex News and Market Commentary

Weekly Forex Market Followup (January 30th - February 3rd 2012)

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of January 30th through February 3rd

Monday, January 30th

Tuesday, January 31st

Wednesday, February 1st

Thursday, February 2nd

Friday, February 3rd

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

USDJPY:

GBPUSD:

AUDUSD:

USDCAD:

NZDUSD:

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (January 30th - February 3rd 2012)

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

Monday, January 30th

Tuesday, January 31st

Wednesday, February 1st

Thursday, February 2nd

Friday, February 3rd

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Higher

USDJPY: Lower

GBPUSD: Mildly Higher

AUDUSD: Mildly Higher

USDCAD: Lower

NZDUSD: Mildly Higher

Weekly Forex Market Followup (January 23rd - January 27th 2012)

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of January 23rd through January 27th

Monday, January 23rd

Tuesday, January 24th

Wednesday, January 25th

Thursday, January 26th

Friday, January 27th

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

USDJPY:

GBPUSD:

AUDUSD:

USDCAD:

NZDUSD:

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (January 23rd - January 27th 2012)

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

Monday, January 23rd

Tuesday, January 24th

Wednesday, January 25th

Thursday, January 26th

Friday, January 27th

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Mildly Lower

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

GBPUSD: Mildly Lower

AUDUSD: Higher

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

NZDUSD: Higher

Weekly Forex Market Followup (January 16th - January 20th 2012)

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of January 16th through January 20th

Monday, January 16th

Tuesday, January 17th

Wednesday, January 18th

Thursday, January 19th

Friday, January 20th

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

USDJPY:

GBPUSD:

AUDUSD:

USDCAD:

NZDUSD:

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (January 16th - January 20th 2012)

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

Monday, January 16th

Tuesday, January 17th

Wednesday, January 18th

Thursday, January 19th

Friday, January 20th

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Mildly Lower

Monday, January 23^rd

Tuesday, January 24^th

Wednesday, January 25^th

Thursday, January 26^th

Friday, January 27^th

Monday, January 23^rd

Tuesday, January 24^th

Wednesday, January 25^th

Thursday, January 26^th

Friday, January 27^th

Monday, January 16^th

Tuesday, January 17^th

Wednesday, January 18^th

Thursday, January 19^th

Friday, January 20^th

Monday, January 16^th

Tuesday, January 17^th

Wednesday, January 18^th

Thursday, January 19^th

Friday, January 20^th

Monday, January 9^th

Tuesday, January 10^th

Wednesday, January 11^th

Thursday, January 12^th

Friday, January 13^th

Monday, January 9^th

Tuesday, January 10^th

Wednesday, January 11^th

Thursday, January 12^th

Friday, January 13^th

Sunday, January 1^st

Monday, January 2^nd

Tuesday, January 3^rd

Wednesday, January 4^th

Thursday, January 5^th

Friday, January 6^th

Sunday, January 1^st

Monday, January 2^nd

Tuesday, January 3^rd

Wednesday, January 4^th

Thursday, January 5^th

Friday, January 6^th

Monday, December 26^th

Tuesday, December 27^th

Wednesday, December 28^th

Thursday, December 29^th