Weekly Forex Market Followup (April 23 - April 27th 2012)
Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of April 23rd through April 27th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of April 23rd through April 27th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, April 23rd
- 1:30am AUD PPI -0.3% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
- 2:30am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.1 versus 48.3 expected.
Tuesday, April 24th
- 1:30am AUD CPI 0.1% versus 0.8% expected. The currency fell.
- 8:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 15.9B versus 15.6B expected. The currency rose.
- Tentative ALL G7 Meetings
- 12:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales 0.5% versus 0.8% expected. The currency rose.
- 2:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 69.2 versus 70.1 expected. The currency fell.
- 2:00pm USD New Home Sales 328K versus 321K expected.
- 5:30pm CAD BOC Governor Carney said that, "The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.4 per cent in both 2012 and 2013 before moderating to 2.2 per cent in 2014. The degree of economic slack has been somewhat smaller than anticipated, and the economy is now expected to return to full capacity in the first half of 2013."
Wednesday, April 25th
- 7:00am EUR ECB President Draghi said that, "Looking forward, in an environment of modest growth in the euro area and well-anchored inflation expectations, underlying price pressures should remain modest. Risks to the outlook for price developments are broadly balanced. Upside risks could stem from higher than expected oil prices and further indirect tax increases; downside risks could arise from weaker than expected economic activity. " The currency rose.
- 8:30am GBP Preliminary GDP -0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
- 12:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders -1.1% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
- 4:30pm USD FOMC Statement noted that, "The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction."
- 6:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections noted that, "Appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s dual objectives of maximum employment and stable prices."
- 6:15pm USD FOMC Press Conference. Fed Chair Bernanke said that, "Incoming information suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Most Committee participants expect economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually. Among other factors, and not withstanding some signs of improvement, the ongoing weakness of the housing sector still represents a headwind for recovery. Strains in global financial markets, though less pronounced generally than last fall, continue to pose significant risk to the outlook."
- 8:15pm CAD BOC Governor Carney said that, "As a result of this reduced slack and higher gasoline prices, the profile for inflation is expected to be somewhat firmer. After moderating this quarter, both total and core inflation are expected to be around 2 per cent over the balance of the projection horizon as the economy reaches its production potential, the growth of labour compensation remains moderate, and inflation expectations stay well-anchored." The currency rose.
- 9:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 2.50%, as expected. The currency fell.
- 9:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement noted that, “The New Zealand dollar has stayed elevated despite recent falls in commodity prices. Should the exchange rate remain strong without anything else changing, the Bank would need to reassess the outlook for monetary policy settings."
Thursday, April 26th
- 12:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 388K versus 378K expected. The currency fell.
- 2:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 4.1% versus 1.4% expected.
Friday, April 27th
- 4:46am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that, "Looking at economic developments overseas, a risk of the European debt problem causing financial market turmoil has decreased and the U.S. economy has continued to recover at a moderate pace. Against this background, although Japan's economic activity has remained more or less flat, it has become increasingly evident that the economy is shifting toward a pick-up phase as positive developments have become widespread." The currency rose.
- 4:46am JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10%, as expected.
- 8:34am JPY BOJ Press Conference. BOJ Governor Shirakawa noted that, "Looking at economic developments overseas, a risk of the European debt problem causing financial market turmoil has decreased and the U.S. economy has continued to recover at a moderate pace. Against this background, although Japan's economic activity has remained more or less flat, it has become increasingly evident that the economy is shifting toward a pick-up phase as positive developments have become widespread.”
- 12:30pm USD Advance GDP 2.2% versus 2.6% expected. The currency fell.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.3183 open to a 1.3249 close.
Actual: Lower from an 81.49 open to an 80.45 close.
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.6119 open to a 1.6237 close.
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0368 open to a 1.0442 close.
Actual: Lower from a 0.9915 open to a 0.9809 close.
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.8164 open to a 0.8191 close
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.
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