Weekly Forex Market Followup (December 3rd - December 7th 2012)

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Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of December 3rd through December 7th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of December 3rd through December 7th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, December 3rd

  • 12:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.0% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 49.1 versus 48.1 expected. The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.5 versus 51.5 expected. The currency fell.

Tuesday, December 4th

  • 12:30am AUD Building Approvals -7.6% versus -1.8% expected. The currency rose.
  • 3:30am AUD Cash Rate 3.00%, as expected after a 25 bp cut from 3.25%.
  • 3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement - RBA Governor Glenn Stevens noted that, "Sentiment in financial markets remains better than it was in mid year, in response to signs of progress in addressing Europe's financial problems, though Europe is likely to remain a source of instability for some time. Long-term interest rates faced by highly rated sovereigns, including Australia, remain at exceptionally low levels."
  • 8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 74.3K versus last 128.2K expected. The currency rose.
  • 9:30am GBP Construction PMI 49.3 versus 50.7 expected. The currency rose.
  • 2:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement noted that, "In Canada, while global headwinds continue to restrain economic activity, domestic factors are supporting a moderate expansion. Following the recent period of below-potential growth, the economy is expected to pick up and return to full capacity by the end of 2013. The Bank continues to project that the expansion will be driven mainly by growth in consumption and business investment, reflecting very stimulative domestic financial conditions." The currency rose.
  • 2:00pm CAD Overnight Rate 1.00%, as expected.

Wednesday, December 5th

  • 12:30am AUD GDP 0.5% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP Services PMI 50.2 versus 51.1 expected. The currency fell.
  • 12:30pm GBP Autumn Forecast Statement – Chancellor George Osborne's Autumn Statement noted that, "After the biggest financial crash of our lifetimes, people know that we face deep seated problems at home and abroad. At home, we live with the legacy of a decade of debt and the failure to equip Britain to compete in the modern world. And we face a multitude of problems from abroad."
  • 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Payrolls 118K versus 127K expected. The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.7 versus 53.8 expected.
  • 8:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 2.50%, as expected. The currency rose.
  • 8:00pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said that, "The overall outlook is for stronger domestic demand and the elimination of current excess capacity by the end of the year, this is expected to cause inflation to rise gradually towards the 2% target mid point."
  • 8:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement noted that, "The global outlook remains soft but appears less threatening than was the case earlier in the year. The risk of severe near-term deterioration in the euro area has decreased and Chinese economic indicators have been more positive recently. However, uncertainty around the US fiscal position is constraining US growth."

Thursday, December 6th

  • 12:30am AUD Employment Change 13.9K versus 0.2K expected. The currency rose.
  • 12:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.2% versus 5.5% expected.
  • 8:15am CHF CPI -0.3% versus 0.0% expected. The currency fell.
  • 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B, as expected. The currency fell.
  • 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50%, as expected.
  • 12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.75%, as expected. The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm CAD Building Permits 15.0% versus 2.3% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference - ECB President Mario Draghi noted that, "The economic weakness in the euro area is expected to extend into next year. In particular, necessary balance sheet adjustments in financial and non-financial sectors and persistent uncertainty will continue to weigh on economic activity."
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 370K versus 381K expected. The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 47.5 versus 58.8 expected.

Friday, December 7th

  • 12:30am AUD Trade Balance -2.09B versus -2.15B expected. The currency rose.
  • 8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 424.8B versus last 426.8B expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production -1.3% versus -0.2% expected. The currency fell.
  • 10:00am EUR ECB President Draghi said that, "A central pillar of the EU’s institutional architecture has always been the principle of subsidiarity. This is the rule that action shall only be taken at the supranational level if the objectives to be pursued cannot be sufficiently achieved by EU members, either at the level of central government or at the regional and local level." The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm CAD Employment Change 59.3K versus 9.3K expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.2% versus 7.4% expected.
  • 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 146K versus 91K expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 7.7% versus 7.9% expected.
  • 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey 74.5 versus 82.1 expected.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.2996 open to a 1.2943 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from an 82.40 open to an 82.28 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.6023 open to a 1.6030 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0427 open to a 1.0493 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.9937 open to a 0.9890 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.8199 open to a 0.8332 close.

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