Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of February 13th through February 17th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of February 13th through February 17th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, February 12^th

• 11:50pm JPY Preliminary GDP -0.6% versus -0.3% expected. The currency fell.

Monday, February 13^th

• 12:30am AUD Home Loans 2.3% versus 1.9% expected. The currency rose.

Tuesday, February 14^th

• 3:43am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that, "Global financial markets remained under heavy strain as the sovereign debt problems in Europe continued to be a matter of concern, reflecting difficulties with the negotiations to reduce the Greek government's debts, although there appeared to be signs of some improvement, as seen in the decline of short-term U.S. dollar funding rates in the money markets."
• 3:43am JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10%, as expected.
• 7:33am JPY BOJ Press Conference. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa stated that, "We will be buying massive amounts of government bonds," adding "This is designed to achieve sustained economic growth under stable prices." The currency fell.
  9:30am GBP CPI 3.6% versus 3.6% expected.
• 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 5.4 versus -11.6 expected. The currency fell.
• 10:30am GBP BOE Inflation Letter noted that, "The Committee’s best collective judgment is that inflation will fall back sharply in the next six months or so, and continue falling thereafter to around target by the end of next year." The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales 0.7% versus 0.6% expected.
• 1:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.4% versus 0.8% expected. The currency rose overall.
• 9:45pm NZD Core Retail Sales 2.9% versus 1.1% expected. The currency was unchanged.

Wednesday, February 15th

• 7:00am EUR German Preliminary GDP -0.2% versus -0.3% expected. The currency fell.
• 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 6.9K versus 3.3K expected.
• 10:30am GBP BOE Governor King said that, "The biggest risk to the recovery stems from developments in the euro area, where there remain concerns about the indebtedness and competitiveness of some member countries."
• 10:30am GBP BOE Inflation Report noted that, "The February Inflation Report indicated that the MPC does not see a strong case for more QE, although it retains a bias toward further loosening. The report therefore places a big question mark over whether more QE is likely in May." The currency rose slightly.
• 2:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 17.9B versus 62.3B expected.
• 7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that, "Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that over coming quarters, inflation will run at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate." The currency was mixed.

Thursday, February 16^th

• 12:30am AUD Employment Change 46.3K versus 10.9K expected.
• 12:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.1% versus 5.3% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Building Permits 0.68M, as expected.
• 1:30pm USD PPI 0.1% versus 0.3% expected.
• 1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 348K versus 364K expected.
• 2:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke said that, “"It is important to emphasize that the Congress enacted the Dodd-Frank Act largely in response to the "too big to fail" problem, and that most of its provisions apply only, or principally, to the largest, most complex, and internationally active banks."
• 3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10.2 versus 8.5 expected. The currency fell except versus the JPY.

Friday, February 17^th

• 9:30am GBP Retail Sales 0.9% versus -0.3% expected. The currency rose.
• 12:00pm CAD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency was mixed.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.3208 open to a 1.3155 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 77.54 open to a 79.36 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.5775 open to a 1.5814 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0687 open to a 1.0726 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0004 open to a 0.9966 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.8288 open to a 0.8346 close.