Weekly Forex Market Followup (May 2nd - May 6th 2011)
Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of May 2nd – May 6th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of May 2nd – May 6th.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, May 2nd:
- CHF - Retail Sales -0.2% versus +2.3%. The Swiss Franc fell marginally.
- GBP - BOE Governor King’s stated that raising long term interest rates could have “severe” effects on the UK economy. Sterling weakened against the Greenback.
- USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI, 60.4 versus 59.9. The U.S. Dollar strengthened.
- NZD - Labor Cost Index, 0.4% versus 0.6%. The Kiwi weakened.
Tuesday, May 3rd:
- AUD – RBA Rate Decision, the Official Cash Rate was left at 4.75%, as expected.
- AUD - RBA Rate Statement was dovish on Australian interest rates. The Aussie fell.
- GBP - Manufacturing PMI came out at 54.6 versus 57.1. Sterling weakened.
- NZD - Building Consents came out at +2.2 versus a previous reading of -9.7%. The Kiwi weakened nevertheless.
Wednesday, May 4th:
- GBP - Nationwide HPI, -0.2% versus +0.3%.
- GBP - Construction PMI, 53.3 versus 55.6. Sterling largely unchanged.
- USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment, 179K versus 202K.
- USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, 52.8 versus 57.9. The U.S. Dollar was mixed.
- NZD - Employment Change, +1.4% versus +0.6%.
- NZD - Unemployment Rate, 6.6% versus 6.7%. NZD weakened despite positive data.
Thursday, May 5th:
- AUD - Building Approvals, 9.1% versus 5.2%.
- AUD - Retail Sales, -0.5% versus +0.6%. The Aussie weakened.
- GBP - Services PMI, 54.8 versus 55.8.
- GBP - BOE Asset Purchase Facility was kept at 200B.
- GBP – BOE Official Bank Rate Decision, rates were left at 0.50%. Sterling fell.
- EUR – ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision, rates were left unchanged at 1.25%.
- EUR - ECB Press Conference. No indication of further rate hikes weakened the Euro.
- CAD - Ivey PMI, 57.7 versus 67.1.
- CAD - Building Permits, +17.2 % versus +2.7%. The Canadian Dollar weakened.
- USD – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, 474K versus 419K. The U.S. Dollar strengthened despite the increase.
Friday, May 6th:
- AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement raised growth and inflation forecasts for Australia. The Aussie strengthened.
- GBP - PPI Input, +2.6 versus +1.7%, Sterling strengthened.
- GBP - BOE Governor King stated that European central banks “must pay more attention to the structure of our banks and the state of their balance sheets. Sterling gained.
- CAD - Employment Change, 58.3K versus 18.3K.
- CAD - Unemployment Rate, 7.6% versus 7.7%. The Loonie strengthened.
- USD - Non-Farm Payrolls, 244K versus 185K.
- USD - Unemployment Rate, 9.0% versus 8.8%. The Greenback was mixed.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
Actual: Lower from a 1.4815 open to a 1.4520 close.
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from an 81.07 open to an 81.57 close.
Actual: Lower from a 1.6703 open to a 1.6436 close.
Actual: Lower from a 1.0962 open to a 1.0784 close.
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.9453 open to a 0.9587 close.
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.8087 open to a 0.7969 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.
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