Weekly Forex Market Followup (September 9th - September 13th 2013)

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Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of September 9ththrough September 13th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of September 9ththrough September 13th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, September 8th

  • 2:51am CNY Trade Balance 28.5B versus 28.6B expected.  The currency rose.

Monday, September 9th

  • 12:50am JPY Current Account 0.33T versus 0.32T expected.  The currency rose.
  • 12:50am JPY Final GDP 0.9% versus 1.0% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements -2.0% versus last -1.1% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 2:30am AUD Home Loans 2.4% versus 2.2% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 2:30am CNY CPI 2.6% versus 2.6% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 2:30am CNY PPI -1.6% versus -1.7% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 8:15am CHF Retail Sales 0.8% versus 3.2% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm CAD Building Permits 20.7% versus 4.4% expected.  The currency rose.

Tuesday, September 10th

  • 12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, “The monetary base had increased significantly as asset purchases by the Bank had progressed, and the year-on-year rate of growth had been in the range of 35-40 percent. “  The currency fell.
  • 12:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity -0.4% versus -0.4% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 6 versus last -3 expected.  The currency rose.
  • 6:30am CNY Fixed Asset Investment 20.3% versus 20.2% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 6:30am CNY Industrial Production 10.4% versus 9.9% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 7:45am EUR French Industrial Production -0.6% versus 0.7% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 9:00am CNY New Loans 711B versus 731B expected.  The currency rose.
  • 9:30am GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey noted that, ““.  The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 3.69M versus 3.96M expected.  The currency rose.

Wednesday, September 11th

  • 12:50am JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 15.2 versus 7.2 expected.  The currency rose.
  • 1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 4.7% versus last 3.5% expected.  The currency rose.9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -32.6K versus -21.2K expected.  The currency rose.
  • 9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 1.1% versus 1.3% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 7.7% versus 7.8% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 10:33am EUR German 10-year Bond Auction 2.06 average yield with a 1.3 bid to cover ratio versus last 1.80 average yield with a 1.3 bid to cover ratio expected.  The currency rose.
  • 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.2M versus last -1.8M expected.  The currency fell.
  • 4:30pm GBP MPC Member Miles said that, "There are signs that a recovery is taking hold in the U.K. economy." He continued saying that,"This is welcome news after a sustained period of almost no growth...There remain significant risks to growth, including the size of export demand from the euro area and the amount of credit supplied by the banking sector.”  The currency rose.
  • 6:00pm USD 10-year Bond Auction 2.95 average yield with a 2.9 bid to cover ratio versus last 2.62 average yield with a 2.5 bid to cover ratio expected.  The currency fell.
  • 10:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 2.50% versus 2.50% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 10:00pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler stated that, "The overvalued currency is a problem and we would certainly, as a central bank, like to see a weaker currency."  The currency rose.
  • 10:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement noted that, "With the inflation pressures that have the potential to build up, given the capacity constraints in the economy, we will need to raise interest rates … Exactly when that will start to trigger will be determined by many factors. At this point we don’t expect that to start this year."  The currency rose.
  • 10:00pm NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “OCR increases will likely be required next year. “  The currency rose.

Thursday, September 12th

  • 12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders 0.0% versus 2.5% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 1.5% versus last 2.3%.  The currency fell.
  • 2:30am AUD Employment Change -10.8K versus 10.2K expected.  The currency fell.
  • 2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.8% versus 5.8% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 9:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin noted that, ““.  The currency fell.
  • 10:00am EUR Industrial Production -1.5% versus -0.1% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 10:00am GBP Inflation Report Hearings Press Conference: BOE Governor Mark Carney said that, “the MPC intends not toraise Bank Rate above its current level of0.5% at least until the Labour Force Survey headline measure of unemployment has fallen to a threshold of 7%.“  The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm CAD NHPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 292K versus 332K expected.  The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm USD Import Prices 0.0% versus 0.6% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -147.9B versus -155.3B expected.  The currency fell.
  • 11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 57.5 versus last 59.5 expected.  The currency rose.

Friday, September 13th

  • 8:15am CHF PPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected.  The currency rose.
  • All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings: European Commission President Manuel Barroso said that, "The Commission's proposal has been on the table since July and it is crucial that we finalise it even more swiftly. I welcome the support of many in the plenary yesterday to have it adopted during this term."The currency fell.
  • All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings: Eurogroup’s President JeroenDijsselbloem said that, “I think we made a lot of progress in strengthening our banks, which is an ongoing process, but also on the regulatory side. Especially, the Banking Union – we made tremendous progress. Hopefully, we will make even more progress before the European elections next year and we’ll have a banking, a proper Banking Union to start, let’s say, in October next year”.  The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales 0.1% versus 0.3% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD PPI 0.3% versus 0.2% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.2% versus 0.5% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Core PPI 0.0% versus 0.2% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 76.8 versus 82.6 expected.  The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD Business Inventories 0.4% versus 0.4% expected.  The currency rose.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.3172 open to a 1.3278close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lowerfrom a99.78open to a99.31close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.5629open to a 1.5866close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.9201open to a 0.9242 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0402open to a 1.0334close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higherfrom a 0.8000open to a 0.8140 close.

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