Weekly Forex Market Forecast (December 10th - December 14th 2012)

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of December 10th – December 14th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Sunday, December 9th

  • 1:30am CNY CPI (2.0% expected)

Monday, December 10th

  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance (26.7B expected)
  • 5:15pm GBP BOE Governor King Speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Tuesday, December 11>th

  • 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (-11.4 expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Trade Balance (-1.2B expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Trade Balance (-42.4B expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, December 12th

  • 4:30am AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change (5.1K expected, < good for currency)
  • 5:30pm USD FOMC Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 7:15pm USD FOMC Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)

Thursday, December 13th

  • 8:30am CHF Libor Rate (<0.25% expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 8:30am CHF SNB Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD PPI (-0.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Retail Sales (0.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (370K expected, < good for currency)

Friday, December 14th

  • 1:45am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (last 50.5 expected)
  • 8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI (last 46.8 expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Core CPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.2904/19, 1.2946, 1.2990/94, 1.3000, 1.3006/08, 1.3020/27, 1.3055/83, 1.3126/39, 1.3159/72, 1.3211/24, 1.3251/92, 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433, 1.3485/95, 1.3546/68 and 1.3614.

Above: 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:

Initial: 1.2857/79, 1.2801/34, 1.2747/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89,1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91 and 1.2323/33.

Below: 1.2241/55, 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.2041, 1.1938, 1.1876, 1.1639, 1.0762 and 1.0206.

USDJPY: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 82.53, 82.64/82.83, 83.01/83.96, 84.09/17, 84.51, 84.80, 85.51 and 85.92.

Above: 87.11/13, 87.95, 93.77 and 94.97.

Support:

Initial: 82.01/22, 81.68/96, 81.46, 81.14, 80.82, 80.56/67, 79.94/80.37, 78.99/79, 78.83/87, 78.59, 78.28, 78.00/78.10, 77.89/99, 77.66, 77.43 and 77.25.

Below: 77.00, 76.73/83, 76.02/41, 75.94/98, 75.70 and 75.56.

GBPUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.6051/66, 1.6092/96, 1.6109/12, 1.6130/43, 1.6162/98, 1.6216, 1.6255, 1.6271/73, 1.6297 and 1.6301/08.

Above: 1.6452/56, 1.6474, 1.6546/98, 1.6616, 1.6741/45 and 1.6876.

Support:

Initial: 1.6001/06, 1.5975/90, 1.5961, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/90, 1.5825, 1.5804/07, 1.5714/81, 1.5685, 1.5624/50 and 1.5545/1.5601.

Below: 1.5514/16, 1.5458/99, 1.5403, 1.5375/92, 1.5267/93, 1.5232 and 1.5123.

AUDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 1.0470/79, 1.0489, 1.0498, 1.0508/18, 1.0528, 1.0566 and 1.0596/1.0638.

Above: 1.0654, 1.0668/86, 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98, 1.0842/54, 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:

Initial: 1.0458, 1.0392/1.0418, 1.0358/66, 1.0337, 1.0324/27, 1.0303/19, 1.0292, 1.0280/86, 1.0257/66, 1.0201/23, 1.0165/77, 1.0148/51, 1.0117, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0052, 1.0000/18, 0.9925/83 and 0.9900.

Below: 0.9849/96, 0.9794, 0.9732, 0.9620/89, 0.9585, 0.9536/41, 0.9500 and 0.9486.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.9899, 0.9905/60, 0.9984/97, 1.0018, 1.0029/32, 1.0056, 1.0083/99, 1.0105, 1.0128, 1.0142/72, 1.0199/1.0232, 1.0249 and 1.0262/1.0311.

Above: 1.0334/37, 1.0353/61, 1.0415/81, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:

Initial: 0.9815/58, 0.9789/99, 0.9780, 0.9762/73, 0.9730/34, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631 and 0.9525.

Below: 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 0.8334/54, 0.8395, 0.8405, 0.8420/27, 0.8504 and 0.8571.

Above: 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:

Initial: 0.8307/17, 0.8241/87, 0.8201/04, 0.8180/95, 0.8172, 0.8146/50, 0.8121/35, 0.8099/0.8109, 0.8078, 0.8050/52, 0.8030/40, 0.8013, 0.7996, 0.7966, 0.7906/50, 0.7804/88, 0.7783/95, 0.7723 and 0.7605/76.

Below: 0.7500/85, 0.7404/67, 0.7321/69, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7099 and 0.7000.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.