Weekly Forex Market Forecast (December 17th - December 21st 2012)

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Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of December 17th – December 21st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Sunday, December 16th

  • All Day JPY Lower House Elections (hawkish leader = good for currency)

Monday, December 17th

  • 2:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi (hawkish = good for currency)

Tuesday, December 18th

  • 12:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence (26.4 expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP CPI (2.6% expected, > good for currency)
  • Tentative GBP BOE Inflation Letter (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 9:45pm NZD Current Account (-4.28B expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, December 19th

  • 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate (101.9 expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9 expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Building Permits (0.87M expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:45pm NZD GDP (0.5% expected, > good for currency)

Thursday, December 20th

  • Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate (<0.10% expected, > good for currency)
  • Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Retail Sales (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (350K expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales (4.85M expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (-1.8 expected, > good for currency)

Friday, December 21st

  • 9:30am GBP Current Account (-13.7B expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (14.8B expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Core CPI (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD GDP (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 1.3159/87, 1.3211/24, 1.3251/92, 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433, 1.3485/95, 1.3546/68 and 1.3614.

Above: 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:

Initial: 1.3126/39, 1.2990/1.3083, 1.2946, 1.2904/19, 1.2801/79, 1.2747/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89,1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91 and 1.2323/33.

Below: 1.2241/55, 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.2041, 1.1938, 1.1876, 1.1639, 1.0762 and 1.0206.

USDJPY: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 83.96, 84.09/17, 84.31, 84.51, 84.80, 85.51 and 85.92.

Above: 87.11/13, 87.95, 93.77 and 94.97.

Support:

Initial: 83.01, 82.53/82.83, 82.01/22, 81.68/96, 81.46, 81.14, 80.82, 80.56/67, 79.94/80.37, 78.99/79, 78.83/87, 78.59, 78.28, 78.00/78.10, 77.89/99, 77.66, 77.43 and 77.25.

Below: 77.00, 76.73/83, 76.02/41, 75.94/98, 75.70 and 75.56.

GBPUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 1.6162/98, 1.6216, 1.6255, 1.6271/73, 1.6297 and 1.6301/08.

Above: 1.6452/56, 1.6474, 1.6546/98, 1.6616, 1.6741/45 and 1.6876.

Support:

Initial: 1.6130/43, 1.6109/12, 1.6083/96, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/06, 1.5975/90, 1.5961, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/90, 1.5825, 1.5804/07, 1.5714/81, 1.5685, 1.5624/50 and 1.5545/1.5601.

Below: 1.5514/16, 1.5458/99, 1.5403, 1.5375/92, 1.5267/93, 1.5232 and 1.5123.

AUDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 1.0566, 1.0572/84, 1.0596/1.0638, 1.0654, 1.0668/86, 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98 and 1.0842/54.

Above: 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:

Initial: 1.0508/28, 1.0470/98, 1.0458, 1.0392/1.0418, 1.0358/66, 1.0327/37, 1.0303/19, 1.0292, 1.0280/86, 1.0257/66, 1.0201/23, 1.0165/77, 1.0148/51, 1.0117, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0052, 1.0000/18, 0.9925/83 and 0.9900.

Below: 0.9849/96, 0.9794, 0.9732, 0.9620/89, 0.9585, 0.9536/41, 0.9500 and 0.9486.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.9899, 0.9905/60, 0.9984/97, 1.0018, 1.0029/32, 1.0056, 1.0083/99, 1.0105, 1.0128, 1.0142/72, 1.0199/1.0232, 1.0249 and 1.0262/1.0311.

Above: 1.0334/37, 1.0353/61, 1.0415/81, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:

Initial: 0.9815/58, 0.9789/99, 0.9780, 0.9762/73, 0.9730/34, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631 and 0.9525.

Below: 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 0.8474, 0.8504 and 0.8571.

Above: 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:

Initial: 0.8405/27, 0.8395, 0.8307/54, 0.8241/87, 0.8201/04, 0.8172/95, 0.8121/50, 0.8078/0.8109, 0.8030/52, 0.8013, 0.7996, 0.7906/66, 0.7804/88, 0.7783/95, 0.7723 and 0.7605/76.

Below: 0.7500/85, 0.7404/67, 0.7321/69, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7099 and 0.7000.

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Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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