Weekly Forex Market Forecast (December 3rd - December 7th 2012)

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Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of December 3rd – December 7th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, December 3rd

  • 12:30am AUD Retail Sales (0.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (48.1 expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (51.5 expected, > good for currency)

Tuesday, December 4th

  • 12:30am AUD Building Approvals (-1.8% expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:30am AUD Cash Rate (3.00%, 25 bps cut expected, > rate good for currency)
  • 3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change (last 128.2K expected, < good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Construction PMI (50.7 expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 2:00pm CAD Overnight Rate (1.00% expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, December 5th

  • 12:30am AUD GDP (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Services PMI (51.1 expected, > good for currency)
  • Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction (last average yield 5.52, with a 1.8 bid-to-cover ratio expected. < yield > ratio good for currency)
  • 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Payrolls (127K expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.8 expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate (2.50% expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:00pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 8:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)

Thursday, December 6th

  • 12:30am AUD Employment Change (0.2K expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:30am AUD Unemployment Rate (5.5% expected, < good for currency)
  • 8:15am CHF CPI (0.0% expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility (375B expected, < good for currency)
  • Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate (0.50% expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate (0.75% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Building Permits (2.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (381K expected, < good for currency)
  • 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI (58.8 expected, > good for currency)

Friday, December 7th

  • 12:30am AUD Trade Balance (-2.15B expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (last 426.8B expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production (-0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 10:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Employment Change (9.3K expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate (7.4% expected, < good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls (91K expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate (7.9% expected, < good for currency)
  • 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (82.1 expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.2990/94, 1.3000, 1.3006/08, 1.3020/27, 1.3055/83, 1.3133/39, 1.3159/72, 1.3211/24, 1.3251/92, 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433, 1.3485/95, 1.3546/68 and 1.3614.

Above: 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:

Initial: 1.2946, 1.2904/19, 1.2857/90, 1.2801/34, 1.2747/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89,1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91 and 1.2323/33.

Below: 1.2241/55, 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.2041, 1.1938, 1.1876, 1.1639, 1.0762 and 1.0206.

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 82.64/82.83, 83.01/83.96, 84.09/17, 84.51, 84.80, 85.51 and 85.92.

Above: 87.11/13, 87.95, 93.77 and 94.97.

Support:

Initial: 82.53, 82.01/22, 81.68/96, 81.46, 81.14, 80.82, 80.56/67, 79.94/80.37, 78.99/79, 78.83/87, 78.59, 78.28, 78.00/78.10, 77.89/99, 77.66, 77.43 and 77.25.

Below: 77.00, 76.73/83, 76.02/41, 75.94/98, 75.70 and 75.56.

GBPUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.6051/66, 1.6092/96, 1.6109/12, 1.6136/43, 1.6162/98, 1.6216, 1.6255, 1.6271/73, 1.6297 and 1.6301/08.

Above: 1.6452/56, 1.6474, 1.6546/98, 1.6616, 1.6741/45 and 1.6876.

Support:

Initial: 1.6006, 1.5975/90, 1.5961, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/90, 1.5825, 1.5804/07, 1.5714/81, 1.5685, 1.5624/50 and 1.5545/1.5601.

Below: 1.5514/16, 1.5458/99, 1.5403, 1.5375/92, 1.5267/93, 1.5232 and 1.5123.

AUDUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.0458, 1.0470/79, 1.0489, 1.0498, 1.0508, 1.0518, 1.0528, 1.0566 and 1.0596/1.0638.

Above: 1.0654, 1.0668/86, 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98, 1.0842/54, 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:

Initial: 1.0396/1.0418, 1.0358/66, 1.0337, 1.0324/27, 1.0303/19, 1.0292, 1.0280/86, 1.0257/66, 1.0201/23, 1.0165/77, 1.0148/51, 1.0117, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0052, 1.0000/18, 0.9925/83 and 0.9900.

Below: 0.9849/96, 0.9794, 0.9732, 0.9620/89, 0.9585, 0.9536/41, 0.9500 and 0.9486.

USDCAD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 0.9938, 0.9960, 0.9984/97, 1.0018, 1.0029/32, 1.0056, 1.0083/99, 1.0105, 1.0128, 1.0142/72, 1.0199/1.0232, 1.0249 and 1.0262/1.0311.

Above: 1.0334/37, 1.0353/61, 1.0415/81, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:

Initial: 0.9921/24, 0.9914, 0.9905/06, 0.9815/99, 0.9789/99, 0.9780, 0.9762/73, 0.9730/34, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631 and 0.9525.

Below: 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.8241/48, 0.8264/65, 0.8279, 0.8287, 0.8307/17, 0.8334, 0.8351/54, 0.8395, 0.8405 and 0.8420/27.

Above: 0.8504, 0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:

Initial: 0.8201/04, 0.8180/95, 0.8172, 0.8146/50, 0.8121/35, 0.8099/0.8109, 0.8078, 0.8050/52, 0.8030/40, 0.8013, 0.7996, 0.7966, 0.7906/50, 0.7804/88, 0.7783/95, 0.7723 and 0.7605/76.

Below: 0.7500/85, 0.7404/67, 0.7321/69, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7099 and 0.7000.

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