Weekly Forex Market Forecast (February 20th - February 24th 2012)

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Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

 The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of February 20th – February 24th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

 The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Sunday, February 19th

  • 9:45pm NZD PPI Input (0.4%, > good for currency)

Monday, February 20th

  • All Day USD Bank Holiday

Tuesday, February 21st

  • 12:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 2:00am NZD Inflation Expectations (2.8%, > good for currency)
  • 2:30am AUD RBA Governor Stevens speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (-8.9B, < good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales (0.2%, > good for currency)

Wednesday, February 22nd

  • 2:30am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (last 48.8, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9, hawkish = good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales (4.66M, > good for currency)

Thursday, February 23rd

  • 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate (108.7, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (350K, < good for currency) 
  • 10:30pm AUD RBA Governor Stevens speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Friday, February 24th

  • 9:30am GBP Revised GDP (-0.2%, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD New Home Sales (316K, > good for currency)
  • All Day G20 Meetings

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

 

EURUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance: 

Initial: 1.3211/19, 1.3258, 1.3281, 1.3321, 1.3334, 1.3362 and 1.3433/95.

Above: 1.3546/68, 1.3614 and 1.3795/98.

Support:

Initial: 1.3197, 1.3145, 1.3055/76, 1.3025, 1.3000, 1.2946/83, 1.2917, 1.2886, 1.2873/77 and 1.2857.

Below: 1.2623/65, 1.2586, 1.2523, 1.2484, 1.2329 and 1.1876.

USDJPY: Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 79.83, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22 and 80.82.

Above: 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.

Support:

Initial: 79.52, 79.40, 79.05, 78.66, 78.06/28, 77.00/89, 76.73/83, 76.41, 76.10, 76.02, 75.94 and 75.70.

Below: 75.65, 75.56, plus 75.00 and 70.00 likely.

GBPUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 1.5868/90,1.5927, 1.6092, 1.6109, 1.6128, 1.6164 and 1.6192.

Above: 1.6452/74, 1.6546, 1.6570, 1.6589/98, 1.6616 and 1.6745.

Support:

Initial: 1.5770/74, 1.5735/45, 1.5728, 1.5717, 1.5685/91, 1.5668, 1.5643, 1.5624/29, 1.5516/85, 1.5465/99, 1.5422, 1.5410 and 1.5375

Below: 1.5293, 1.5270/77, 1.5232, 1.5123 and 1.5000. 

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 1.0784, 1.0792, 1.0798 and 1.0842.

Above: 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:

Initial: 1.0751, 1.0718, 1.0686, 1.0670, 1.0654, 1.0627/38, 1.0608, 1.0498, 1.0444, 1.0384, 1.0303, 1.0266, 1.0224/29, 1.0216 and 1.0100/16.

Below: 1.0000/52, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9861/63 and 0.9732.

USDCAD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.9969, 0.9980, 1.0026/78, 1.0105/42, 1.0160, 1.0172, 1.0199, 1.0207/32, 1.0262/87, 1.0297, 1.0302 and 1.0334/37.

Above: 1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:

Initial: 0.9924/27, 0.9891, 0.9828/77 and 0.9724/96.

Below: 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 0.8405, 0.8420/23 and 0.8504.

Above: 0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:

Initial: 0.8378, 0.8339, 0.8294, 0.8240/48, 0.8109/90, 0.8066/93, 0.7993/96, 0.7979, 0.7955 and 0.7906.

Below: 0.7855/88, 0.7827/36, 0.7804/09, 0.7795, 0.7723/73, 0.7605/72, 0.7568 and 0.7500/52.

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