Weekly Forex Market Forecast (February 6th - February 10th 2012)

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Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of February 6th – February 10th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, February 6th

  • 12:30am AUD Retail Sales (0.2%, > good for currency)
  • 8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (last 254.2B, < good for currency)
  • 8:00am GBP Halifax HPI (0.1%, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI (58.6, > good for currency)
  • 9:45pm NZD Labor Cost Index (0.5%, > good for currency)

Tuesday, February 7th

  • 3:30am AUD Cash Rate (4.00%, > good for currency)
  • 3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Building Permits (0.8%, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies (hawkish = good for currency)

Wednesday, February 8th

  • 9:45pm NZD Employment Change (0.4%, > good for currency)
  • 9:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate (6.5%, < good for currency)

Thursday, February 9th

  • 1:30am CNY CPI (4.0%)
  • 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production (0.3%, > good for currency)
  • 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility (325B, < good for currency)
  • 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate (0.50%, > good for currency)
  • Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
  • 12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate (1.00%, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (390K, < good for currency)

Friday, February 10th

  • 12:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance (10.8B)
  • 8:15am CHF CPI (-0.3%, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP PPI Input (0.4%, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Trade Balance (0.7B, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Trade Balance (-48.2B, > good for currency)
  • 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (74.3, > good for currency)
  • 5:30pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial:
1.3219/58, 1.3281, 1.3334, 1.3362 and 1.3433/95.
Above:
1.3546/68, 1.3614 and 1.3795/98.

Support:
Initial:
1.3211, 1.3197, 1.3145, 1.3055/76, 1.3025, 1.3000, 1.2983, 1.2968, 1.2957, 1.2946, 1.2917, 1.2886, 1.2873/77 and 1.2857.
Below:
1.2623/65, 1.2586, 1.2523, 1.2484, 1.2329 and 1.1876.

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial:
76.73/83, 77.00/13, 77.29/33, 77.48/49, 77.61/89, 78.06/16, 78.22, 78.27/28, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.52, 79.96, 80.00, 80.22 and 80.82.
Above:
81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77.

Support:
Initial:
76.41, 76.10, 76.02, 75.94 and 75.70.
Below:
75.65, 75.56, plus 75.00 and 70.00 likely.

GBPUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5868/90,1.6092, 1.6109, 1.6128, 1.6164 and 1.6192.
Above:
1.6452/74, 1.6546, 1.6570, 1.6589/98, 1.6616 and 1.6745.

Support:
Initial:
1.5770/74, 1.5735/45, 1.5717, 1.5685/91, 1.5668, 1.5624/29, 1.5557/85, 1.5531/37, 1.5516, 1.5465/99, 1.5422, 1.5410 and 1.5375
Below:
1.5293, 1.5270/77, 1.5232, 1.5123 and 1.5000. 

AUDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial:
1.0784, 1.0792 and 1.0798.
Above:
1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial:
1.0751, 1.0718, 1.0686, 1.0670, 1.0654, 1.0608, 1.0498, 1.0444, 1.0384, 1.0303, 1.0266, 1.0224/29, 1.0216 and 1.0100/16.
Below:
1.0000/52, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9861/63 and 0.9732.

USDCAD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial:
0.9969, 0.9980, 1.0026/78, 1.0105/42, 1.0160, 1.0172, 1.0199, 1.0207/32, 1.0262/87, 1.0297, 1.0302 and 1.0334/37.
Above:
1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:
Initial:
0.9927, 0.9891, 0.9828/77 and 0.9724/96.
Below:
0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial:
0.8378, 0.8423 and 0.8504.
Above:
0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial:
0.8339, 0.8294, 0.8240/48, 0.8109/90, 0.8066/93, 0.7993/96, 0.7979, 0.7955 and 0.7906.
Below:
0.7855/88, 0.7827/36, 0.7804/09, 0.7795, 0.7723/73, 0.7605/72, 0.7568 and 0.7500/52.

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Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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