Weekly Forex Market Forecast (June 18th - June 22th 2012)

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Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of June 18th – June 22nd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Sunday, June 17th

  • All Day EUR Greek Parliamentary Election

Monday, June 18th

  • All Day ALL G20 Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)

Tuesday, June 19th

  • 2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP CPI (3.0%, > good for currency)
  • 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (3.6, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Building Permits (0.73M, > good for currency)
  • Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 11:45pm NZD Current Account (-1.16B, > good for currency)

Wednesday, June 20th

  • 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change (-3.1K, < good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9, hawkish = good for currency)
  • 5:30pm USD FOMC Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 7:15pm USD FOMC Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 11:45pm NZD GDP (0.4%, > good for currency)

Thursday, June 21st

  • 3:30am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (last 48.4, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Retail Sales (1.1%, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales (0.2%, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (381K, < good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales (4.59M, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (1.3, > good for currency)

Friday, June 22nd

  • All Day CNY Bank Holiday
  • 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate (106.2, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Core CPI (0.3%, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial:
1.2857/86, 1.2904, 1.2946/94, 1.3000/55, 1.3133/59, 1.3211/24, 1.3251/92, 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433 and 1.3485/95.
Above:
1.3546/68, 1.3614, 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial:
1.2668, 1.2623, 1.2588, 1.2496, 1.2456, 1.2435, 1.2329, 1.2288, 1.1938, 1.1876 and 1.1639.
Below:
1.0762, 1.0206, 0.9599/0.9607, 0.9338, 0.8410, 0.8347 and 0.8225.

USDJPY: Lower

Resistance:
Initial:
78.99, 79.11, 79.40/42, 79.74/79, 79.96/80.22, 80.56/61, 80.82, 81.14/46, 81.76/96, 82.01/22, 82.53 and 82.64.
Above:
83.01/83.96, 84.09/17, 84.51, 84.80, 85.51, 85.92, 87.11/13, 87.95, 93.77 and 94.97.

Support:
Initial:
78.66, 78.59, 78.28, 78.06, 77.00, 77.66, 77.89, 76.73/83 and 76.02/41.
Below:
75.94/98, 75.70 and 75.56.

GBPUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial:
1.5717, 1.5725, 1.5732, 1.5781, 1.5804/07, 1.5890, 1.5907, 1.5921/27, 1.5983/90, 1.6035, 1.6061/92, 1.6109 and 1.6182/98.
Above:
1.6297, 1.6301, 1.6452/56, 1.6474, 1.6546, 1.6570, 1.6589/98, 1.6616, 1.6741/45 and 1.6876.

Support:
Initial:
1.5685/91, 1.5668, 1.5624/47, 1.5585/1.5601, 1.5516, 1.5403/99, 1.5375, 1.5293, 1.5270/77, 1.5267, 1.5232, 1.5123, 1.5066 and 1.5000.
Below:
1.4785/98, 1.4348, 1.4232, 1.3653 and 1.3501. 

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial:
1.0117, 1.0216/66, 1.0303/84, 1.0422, 1.0444/51 and 1.0474/98.
Above:
1.0508, 1.0556, 1.0596, 1.0608/38, 1.0654, 1.0668/86, 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98, 1.0842/54, 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial:
1.0100, 1.0052, 1.0000/18, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9896, 0.9861/63, 0.9849, 0.9794, 0.9732, 0.9620/89, 0.9585, 0.9536/41, 0.9500 and 0.9486.
Below:
0.9382/86, 0.9341, 0.9329, 0.9221, 0.8915, 0.8734, 0.8578 and 0.8066/81.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial:
1.0206/09, 1.0220, 1.0232, 1.0262/1.0311, 1.0334/37, 1.0353, 1.0415/23, 1.0438/39, 1.0481 and 1.0500.
Above:
1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:
Initial:
1.0200, 1.0160/99, 1.0105/42, 1.0018/78, 0.9924/97, 0.9906, 0.9828/99, 0.9789/99 and 0.9724.
Below:
0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial:
0.7906, 0.7914, 0.7955, 0.7979, 0.7993/96, 0.8057/99, 0.8109/35, 0.8204, 0.8227, 0.8240/62, 0.8279 and 0.8294.
Above:
0.8317/95, 0.8405, 0.8420/27, 0.8504, 0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial:
0.7804/88, 0.7783/95, 0.7723, 0.7605/76, 0.7552/85, 0.7521, 0.7500, 0.7404/67, 0.7369, 0.7342, 0.7321, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7099 and 0.7000.
Below:
0.6945/62, 0.6793, 0.6686, 0.6560, 0.5914/28, 0.5012, 0.4890, 0.4485, 0.4451 and 0.3909.

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