Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are coming out during the week of May 16^th – May 20^th.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, May 16^th:

• AUD - Home Loans (2.3%, > good for AUD)
• USD - Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks in Washington D.C. (hawkish = good for USD)
• USD – TIC Long Term Purchases (57.7B, > good for USD)

Tuesday, May 17^th:

• AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for AUD)
• GBP – CPI (4.1%, > good for GBP)
• EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey (4.7, > good for EUR)
• GBP – BOE Inflation Letter, tentative (hawkish = good for GBP)
• USD – Building Permits (0.59M, > good for USD)
• NZD – PPI Input (0.6%, > good for NZD)

Wednesday, May 18^th:

• GBP – Claimant Count Change (0.7K, > good for GBP)
• GBP – MPC Meeting Minutes (3-0-6, more hawkish votes = good for GBP)
• USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for USD)

Thursday, May 19^th:

• JPY – Preliminary GDP (-0.5%, > good for JPY)
• NZD – Annual Budget Release (> spending and < borrowing are good for NZD)
• GBP - Retail Sales (1.0%, > good for GBP)
• USD – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (421K, < good for USD)
• USD – Existing Home Sales (5.22M, > good for USD)
• USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (20.3, > good for USD)

Friday, May 20^th:

• JPY – BOJ Overnight Call Rate Decision, tentative (<0.1%, > good for JPY)
• JPY – BOJ Monetary Policy Statement, tentative (hawkish = good for JPY)
• JPY – BOJ Press Conference, tentative (hawkish = good for JPY)
• CAD – Core CPI (0.1%, > good for CAD)
• CAD – Core Retail Sales (0.8%, > good for CAD)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:  Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.4123, 1.4276 and 1.4339.
Above: 1.4441, 1.4520, 1.4648, 1.4881 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial: 1.4065 and 1.4020/53.
Below: 1.3703/23, 1.3524/45 and 1.3420/98.

USDJPY: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 80.92/81.33 and 81.68.
Above: 82.10/41, 82.77, 83.09, 83.49/83.77 and 84.58/72.

Support:
Initial: 80.33, 80.15, 80.00 and 79.56.
Below: 78.24, 76.41 and 75.00 (likely).

GBPUSD:  Lower

Resistance:
Initial:  1.6233, 1.6269, 1.6462 and 1.6517.
Above: 1.6542/98, 1.6720/1.6744, 1.6876 and 1.7040.

Support:
Initial: 1.6140/64 and 1.6000.
Below: 1.5971, 1.5935, 1.5824 and 1.5750.

AUDUSD:  Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0617, 1.0715, 1.0801 and 1.0876/87.
Above: 1.0976, 1.1000, 1.1010 and 1.1500 (likely).

Support:  
Initial: 1.0536, 1.0519, 1.0510 and 1.0500.
Below:  1.0441, 1.0388 and 1.0287.

USDCAD:  Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.9695/0.9720 and 0.9743.
Above: 0.9820/52, 0.9966 and 0.9974/1.0057.

Support: 
Initial: 0.9655, 0.9603, 0.9572 and 0.9512.
Below:  0.9448/53, 0.9056 and 0.9000.

NZDUSD:  Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 0.7878/96, 0.7972 and 0.7990.
Above: 0.8061, 0.8119, 0.8213, 0.8500 (likely) and 0.9000 (likely).

Support: 
Initial: 0.7834/40 and 0.7816/0.7821.
Below:  0.7744, 0.7668, 0.7580/82 and 0.7500.