U.S. Dollar Market Recap

The U.S. Dollar had a mixed performance against most of the other major currencies last week, as the U.S. economy showed equally mixed signs of recovery but the lingering European debt crisis continued to prompt U.S. Dollar buying on a safe haven basis.

Overall, these factors brought the Greenback higher against the Euro, Yen and Loonie, but down against the Aussie and more or less unchanged against the Kiwi and Sterling.

Furthermore, the U.S. stock market had its worst month in over a year, and the worst May since way back in 1962, as it lost almost 8% on the month.

Nevertheless, the economic data out from the United States last week appears to be still indicating a recovery, a weakening one perhaps, but a recovery nonetheless.

The past week of economic data releases began with U.S. Existing Home Sales on Monday, showing 5.77M versus a consensus of 5.62M and with the previous number of 5.35M revised upward to 5.36M.

On Tuesday, CB Consumer Confidence showed a better than expected reading of 63.3 versus a consensus of 59.1.

Wednesday's U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders showed a decrease of -1.0% versus an increase of 0.5% expected, although the revised previous number was much better at 4.8% versus the 2.8% original print. Durable Goods Orders showed a 2.9% increase M/M versus a 1.4% consensus and a previous number revised upwards from -1.3% to 0.0%.

Also on Wednesday, New Home Sales in the United States rose to 504K, versus an expected increase of 425K. The previous number was also revised upwards to 439K from 411K.

Thursday saw two unsatisfactory economic numbers released for the U.S. economy, as U.S. Preliminary GDP came out at a disappointing 3.0% Q/Q versus an expected 3.5% rise and Initial Jobless Claims came out at 460k versus the lower 450K expected.

Friday's U.S. economic numbers were somewhat mixed, but predominately indicated a softer U.S. economic picture. Personal Income was released at 0.4% versus the market's consensus of 0.5%, although the previous number of 0.3% was revised upward to 0.4%. In addition, Personal Spending came out at 0.0% versus a consensus of 0.3%, and the Chicago PMI fell to 59.7 versus a consensus of 62.1, down from its previous reading of 63.8. Finally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report came out slightly higher at 73.6 versus the 73.4 consensus.

Fundamental Data Outlook for the United States

The economic calendar in the United States offers some key data this upcoming week, with Friday's important Employment Report featured. 

The week starts on Monday, which is quiet on the data front as a result of the U.S. Memorial Day Bank Holiday, although Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to speak in Seoul, Korea.

Tuesday offers ISM Manufacturing PMI (59.6) and Prices (73.9), as well as Construction Spending (0.1% M/M), but Wednesday only has Challenger Job Cuts (last -71.1% Y/Y).

Thursday is especially busy with Pending Home Sales (4.8% M/M), Initial Jobless Claims (451K), ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (56K), Total Vehicle Sales (11.4M), Revised Unit Labor Costs (-1.6% Q/Q), Revised Nonfarm Productivity (3.5% Q/Q), Factory Orders (1.1% M/M) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (55.9).

In addition, Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking in Detroit on Thursday, and FOMC Member Rosengren will speak in Springfield and Hoenig is scheduled to speak in Bartlesville.

Friday will present the highlight of the week, as the G20 Meetings commence in Seoul. Also, the key U.S. Unemployment Rate (9.8%) and Non-Farm Payrolls (465K) will be released, in addition to Average Hourly Earnings (0.1% M/M).

Saturday closes the week as the G20 meetings run for their second day in Seoul.