A Negative US$ Tone in G3; EURUSD Bullish, USDJPY Bearish

Technical Analysis

EURUSD has signalled a more bullish tone since the ECB Meeting on Thursday 10 March, with whipsaw price action resolving higher. This has set an upside bias for EURUSD into latter March.

For USDJPY, consolidation in March has been capped below 114.88, which leaves the bias for renewed bearish pressures from the aggressive February sell offs.

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EURUSD

A rebound through the ECB last Thursday from just below 1.0823 support (from 1.0821) to surge back up through 1.1157 and shift the intermediate term outlook to bullish.

Furthermore, the dip and rebound Friday from ahead of 1.1020 support (from 1.1078), leaves a bull tone into Monday.

For Monday:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1193/1.1218; break here aims for 1.1259 and 1.1300.
  • But below 1.1078 opens risk down to 1.1020.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1376/95.
  • Above here targets 1.1495 and maybe 1.1714.

What Changes This? Below 1.0821 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0708.

Daily EURUSD Chart

EURUSD

USDJPY

Despite a modest rebound effort on Friday, the Thursday failure (again) from ahead of 114.55 and key 114.88 resistances (from 114.44) once more leaves the bias lower on Monday.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for 113.35/30; break here aims for 112.59, maybe the key 112.20/112.13/111.95 area.
  • But above 114.44/55 opens risk up to critical 114.88, which we would look to try to cap.

Moreover, the previous push below 117.62 signalled a renewal of bear pressures into February.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 110.33/00.
  • Below here targets 106.65/12.

What Changes This? Above 114.88 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 117.53.

Daily USDJPY Chart

USDJPY

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