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ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Ivey PMI Place Spotlight on USDCAD

Technical Analysis

An abundance of global data on Wednesday 6th May but from the US, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be a key focus ahead of Friday’s Employment report. Furthermore, the Ivey PMI data from Canada leaves significant risk for a notable USDCAD move.

USDCAD Bearish Trend

A failure back from a probe above 1.2200 (from 1.2205), to leave a more negative tone into midweek.

Despite the rebound from longer term trend line and chart support at 1.1970/42/33, the push below the impulse level at 1.2062, through 1.2000/ 1.1990 psychological/ option/ long term retracement targets maintains our bearish view for downside extension risk into May.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1993; break here aims for 1.1970/42/33, which we would look to try to hold.
  • But above 1.2131 opens risk up to 1.2205, which we would look to cap.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.1945/33
  • Below here targets 1.1803 and 1.1729.

What Changes This? Above 1.2571 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.2667.

Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is falling and has scope to go still lower this week.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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