The Australian and New Zealand Dollars this week remain at the bottom end of down trends from the early 2016 sell offs versus the US currency.
This leaves AUDUSD aiming at and through the 2015 low, at .6894. NZDUSD is poised to challenge the Q4 2015 low at .6427, through which would see an even more bearish tone.
Despite a Wednesday bounce to prod above the modest .7036 level, the stall and setback from ahead of the key .7077/94 area leaves a bear bias for Thursday.
For This Week:
- We see a downside bias for .6925; break here aims for .6894 and .6857.
- But above .7049 opens risk up to .7077/94.
The break through .7014 in early January set a bigger picture bear bias for January.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6894.
- Below here targets .6645.
What Changes This? Above .7327 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7385.
Despite a Wednesday bounce, stall from the .6580/984 area (from .6590) leaves a low level consolidation tone and bear bias for Thursday.
For This Week:
- We see a downside bias through .6504; break here aims for .6493 and maybe key .6427.
- But above .6580/98 opens risk up to 6678.
The roll lower from late December maintains a broader range theme, after a rejection of a bull breakout in early January.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .6897 and .6427.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above .6897 aims higher for .6924/30 and .7000/09/12.
- Downside: Below .6427 sees risk lower for .6232, .6154 and .6000.