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AUDUSD and NZDUSD Bear Trends Correcting

NZDUSD Chart 2018-07-09

  • In our last report on AUDUSD and NZDUSD here on 28th June we highlighted ongoing intermediate-term bear trends, which we still see as intact further into July.
  • However, broad based US Dollar losses versus most major currencies at the start of July have questioned these intermediate-term bear trends, and in the short-term points to corrective upside for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD.
  • AUDUSD remains bearish on an intermediate-term view whilst below .7677 and for NZDUSD whilst below .7060, but we do see correction threats towards these levels into mid-month.

AUDUSD

Upside bias

A better rebound than expected Friday above the .7423/25 resistance area and already Monday above .7444/54, for now rejecting bear pressures from the early July plunge to a new cycle low, shifting risks higher Monday.

We see a re-energized intermediate-term bear trend whilst below .7677.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for targets .7475/80, maybe .7500.
  • But below .7359 opens risk down to .7337 and 7308/00.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7677 we see a downside risk for .7155/41 and .7000.

  • What Changes This? Above .7678 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7444/54* .7475/80 .7500 .7566 .7597/00
.7359 .7337* .7308/00* .7289 .7251

4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD Chart 2018-07-09

NZDUSD

Positive tone

A strong rally Friday up through notable .6833 resistance to build on Thursday’s rebound above the .6792 resistance barrier, for now rejecting negative pressures from last Monday’s significant selloff to another new cycle low, shifting risks higher Monday.

The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6842; break here aims for .6858 and maybe targets .6900.
  • But below .6780/75 opens risk down to .6729 and maybe .6693.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6676/64.

  • Lower targets would be .6500 and .6343.
  • What Changes This? Above .7060 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6842 .6858* .6900 .6921** .6956
.6780/75 .6729 .6693* .6676/64** .6647

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD Chart 2018-07-09

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