- Back on 30th August we looked at AUDUSD and NZDUSD and highlighted the easing of intermediate-term bear pressures and the threat of potential bullish shifts.
- However, renewed global “risk off” pressures have seen equity and Base Metals markets significantly lower and in turn seen the “risk currencies” selloff.
- For AUDUSD, the recent early September plunge produced a new cycle low, dismissing the August rebound efforts and leaving risks for a bear trend extension into September.
- Similarly, for NZDUSD, the late August-early September selloff from below key .6721 resistance to probe to a new cycle low sets risks lower for the balance of Q3.
AUDUSD Rebound risk rejected, intermediate-term bear trend resumes
An aggressive plunge lower Friday to yet another new multi-year low through a notable .7106 support, fully rejecting the early September resilient consolidation and small basing effort, to flip the bias back to the downside for Monday.
The late August negative price action through the .7199 mid-August swing/ cycle low resumed the intermediate-term bearish trend.
- We see a downside bias for .7096; break here aims for .7038, maybe towards psychological/ option target at .7000.
- But above .7147 opens risk up to .7169.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .7000.
- Lower targets would be .6825 and maybe towards .6500
- What Changes This? Above .7382 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight back to a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour AUDUSD Chart
NZDUSD Bear theme resurfacing
A selloff on Friday through the .6570 support from the early September very small base attempt and to probe the cycle low at .6528 (to .6524), to reject this bottoming effort and resume intermediate-term bearish forces, shifting risks lower for Monday.
The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend, intact whilst below .6721.
- We see a downside bias for .6524/23; break here aims for psychological/ option target at .6500 and then .6471.
- But above .6564 opens risk up to .6588.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6721 we see a downside risk for .6500.
- Lower targets would be .6347, .6195 and .6000.
- What Changes This? Above .67121 switches the intermediate-term straight to bullish.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart