AUDUSD and NZDUSD Bull Trends Damaged
The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar have suffered notable price erosion over the past 1-2 weeks against the US Dollar (from mid-July) to break support levels from intermediate-term bull trends.
AUDUSD has moved close to the key .7403 level on Wednesday (27th July) after the FOMC statement, with a move below here still required to shift from an intermediate-term up trend to a range phase into August.
For NZDUSD, a probe already below.6960 has signalled a shift from bullish, to a neutral theme into August.
An extremely erratic tone on Wednesday before and after the FOMC statement, for a bearish outside pattern and setback from ahead of resistance at .7606 (from .7566) to another new correction low (below .7438, to .7417).
This reinforces the sell off since the bearish outside pattern from the cycle peak, (.7676, posted Friday 15th July), to again leave downside risk Thursday.
Risk is still growing for a shift back to a neutral intermediate-term outlook (from bullish), below .7403.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The mid-July new recovery high above .7648 signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7676 and .7719.
- Above here targets .7835/49/78 and .8000.
What Changes This? Below .7403 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7284.
For Thursday/ Friday:
- We see a downside bias for .7417; break here aims for key .7403, maybe .7370.
- But above .7493 opens risk up to .7566.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
A negative consolidation Wednesday capped below minor resistance at .7086, after a stall and setback Tuesday from here, to again leave a negative bias into Wednesday.
Mid-July saw a shift in the intermediate-term outlook from bullish to neutral, with the probe below the key .6960 level.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We now see the broader range defined by .7324 and .6676.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above .7324 aims higher for .7396/7413 and .7564.
- Downside: Below .6676 sees risk lower for .6541 and .6343.
For Thursday/ Friday:
- We see a downside bias for .6980; break here aims for .6948/45 and .6925.
- But above .7086 opens risk up to .7123/25.
Daily NZDUSD Chart