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AUDUSD and NZDUSD Corrective Rebound, But Bear Trends

NZDUSD Chart

  • Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD have attempted modest rebound efforts in the middle of this week (ahead of the RBNZ Meeting).
  • However, the intermediate term bearish themes remain very much intact, leaving risk of significant lower price action for both these FX currency spot rate into mid-May and potentially beyond.

Technical analysis for major currency pairs

AUDUSD – Rebound bias

A better rebound effort that we had anticipated on Wednesday, (ahead of the RBNZ Meeting) and although the intermediate term outlook remains very negative, we do see potential for a further correction risk going into Thursday.

However, the early April push down through .7487 produced an intermediate-term bearish shift.

For Today:

l We see an upside bias for .7398; break here aims for the .7426/31 area.

l But below .7331/27 opens risk down to .7300 and maybe .7283/79.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7283/79.

l Below here targets .7155/41/06 area, .7000 and .6971.

What Changes This? Above .7778 signals a bullish tone.

4 Hour aud usd Chart

AUDUSD Chart

NZDUSD – Rebound risk

Although the outlook remains bearish into May, the rebound effort on Tuesday to prod above resistance at .6946 shifts the immediate risk into the RBNZ Meeting and Thursday to the upside.

However, the late April push down below .6867, produced an intermediate-term shift to bearish.

For Today:

l We see an upside bias through .6950; break here aims for .6968/69, which we would look to try to cap.

l But below .6875 opens risk down to .6835, may be .6800.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6800 and .6676/64.

l Below here targets .6572/41 and maybe as deep as .6343.

What Changes This? Above .7053 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7247.

4 Hour nzd usd Chart

NZDUSD Chart

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