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AUDUSD and NZDUSD corrective upside risks

AUDUSD Chart

  • The US Dollar is mixed across major currencies, erratic and indecisive, echoing global equity markets amid the start of a potential global trade war, with further tariffs imposed by both the US and China.
  • The late March AUDUSD surrender of .7710 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, But the near term bias is for a correction higher.
  • An intermediate-term range theme is dominant for NZDUSD, with the immediate bias to the upside, maybe to test key .7355 resistance.

AUDUSD

Positive correction tone

A Wednesday probe above .7707 resistance and the down trend line from mid-March, then a dip and another rebound from above .7647/40 supports (off of .7660), easing negative pressures from the latter March selloff from .7758/64 resistance, shifting the risks higher Thursday.

The mid-March push below .7710 signalled an intermediate-term shift from a range theme to a bearish trend, intact whist below .7848

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7717; break here aims for .7758/64, maybe towards .7785.
  • But below .7660 opens risk down to .7647/40 and .7635.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .7635.

  • Lower targets would be .7500, .7368/31 and .7155/41.
  • What Changes This? Above .7848 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7916 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7717 .7758/64* .7785* .7804* .7848***
.7660 .7647/40/35** .7599 .7550/43* .7500***

4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD Chart

NZDUSD

Positive bias

A firm tone on Wednesday to build on Tuesday’s spike above modest resistance at .7248 with a push above .7271, for now rejecting downside pressures from the mid-March push through our key .7175 support level (for an intermediate-term Double Top), shifting risks higher Thursday.

We now see an intermediate-term range theme defined as .7151 to .7355.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 7303; break here aims for .7323, maybe towards key .7355.
  • But below .72370 opens risk down .7239, maybe then to .7184.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .7151 to .7355.

  • Upside Risks: Above .7355 sets a bull trend to aim for .7558 and .7744.
  • Downside Risks: Below .7151 sees a bear trend to target .6951 and .6778.

Resistance and Support:

.7303 .7323* .7355*** .7386** .7411*
.7270 .7239 .7184 .7151*** .7140/38**

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD Chart

 

Read more technical analysis here.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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