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AUDUSD and NZDUSD Displaying Divergent Themes

Technical Analysis

Although usually trading very much in line with each other, the AUDUSD bullish, resilience from February sits opposed to certainly negative tone for NZDUSD.

Although we are not aggressively bearish NZDUSD, we do see bias for further losses into early March and see the bias for AUDUSD as higher.

Read the latest technical analysis

AUDUSD

A firm rebound up from probes at the 2016 up trend line (now .7140), with a better rebound effort above .7192 resistance and key .7259/60 barriers, to switch to an upside bias into Thursday.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see an upside bias for .7301 and .7327; break here aims for .7334/42 and maybe .7385.
  • But below .7197 aims for .7140 and opens risk down to .7106; break here aims for .7066/60.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The break above .7243 set a bull theme.

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7327.
  • Above here targets .7385, .7440 and .7499.

What Changes This? Below .6971 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6914.

Daily AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

Despite another bounce effort Wednesday, firm resistance at .6695/6700 has capped and we still see negative pressures from the bearish outside pattern last Friday back from barriers at .6775/76, to leave the risk skewed lower again for Thursday.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see a downside bias for .6561; break here aims for maybe .6541 .6522 and .6506.
  • But above .6695/6700 aims for .6735/40, which we would look to try to cap.

The aggressive rally in early February above .6678 signalled a shift to a broader range theme.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .6879 and .6418.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .6879 aims higher through .6897 for 6970, 7009/12 and .7232.
  • Downside: Below .6418 sees risk lower for .6343, .6232 and .6195.

Daily NZDUSD Chart

NZDUSD

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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