fbpx

AUDUSD and NZDUSD Risks Still Lower (Despite Early 2017 Rebounds)


Despite modest rebounds to start 2017, the negative tone exhibited by both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars in the second half of Q4 2016, leaves AUDUSD and NZDUSD risks still lower into mid-January.

The US$ gains after the November US Presidential election and in reaction to the mid-December FOMC rate hike sets the bias for still further gains for the greenback against the Australian and New Zealand Dollars into early 2017.

AUDUSD

A better recovery effort than anticipated to start 2017, on Wednesday pushing above the .7247 peak from late 2016 and to nudge chart resistance at .7280, signaling a small base structure and shifting the immediate bias to the upside for Thursday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7313; break here aims for .7354.
  • But below .7210 opens risk down to .7162/55.

However, the mid-November break of .7438 completed a multiple peak topping pattern, which leaves an intermediate-term bearish theme.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7141.
  • Below here targets .7000, .6971 and .6825.

What Changes This? Above .7630 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7778.

Daily AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

NZDUSD

Another recovery effort on Wednesday, to reinforce the rebound into the end of the year, reluctant to challenge the December low at .6867, leaving risk for a positive consolidation theme into Wednesday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6979 and .6989; break here aims for .7028.
  • But below .6906 opens risk down to .6881, maybe .6867.

However, the mid-November breakdown through the multi-month “neckline” of the Head and Shoulders top from July, signaled an intermediate-term bearish shift, confirmed below .7030.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6800.
  • Below here targets .6676/64, .6572/41 and maybe as deep as .6343.

What Changes This? Above .7239 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7403.

Daily NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


Popular Brokers