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AUDUSD and NZDUSD shift bullish with strong “flash crash” rebounds

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  • We last reviewed the AUDUSD and NZDUSD spot FX rates here on 19th December with AUDUSD having shifted bearish and NZD poised for a similarly negative signal.
  • However, since the “flash crash” early in 2019, both currency pairs (AUDUSD and NZDUSD), have seen strong rebounds and further gains, through notable technical levels, shifting the intermediate-term outlooks to bullish.
  • On a fundamental basis, this has been a reaction to both a global shift to “risk on”, with easing trade war concerns, alongside a broadly more negative tone for the US Dollar, given a more dovish tone from FOMC Members, including the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell.

 

AUDUSD Still aiming higher

A punch higher Friday above .7194/98 and .7204 resistances, to build on Thursday’s dip and a rebound from above .7132 support, after the break through the key .7149 level AND the aggressive recovery effort since the early 2019 “flash crash”, keeping the bias higher into Monday.

The early January push above key .7149 set an intermediate-term bullish trend.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see an upside bias for .7235; break here quickly aims for .7247, maybe then towards .7276.
  • But below .7168 aims for .7132 and maybe opens risk down to .7114/07.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for .7247.

  • Higher targets would be .7394 and .7500.
  • What Changes This? Below .7024 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through .6916 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7235 .7247* .7276* .7301* .7356**
.7168* .7132 .7114/07** .7078 .7024*

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

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NZDUSD Upside pressures reinforced

A push higher through .6809 on Friday, building on Wednesday’s push up through the key .6790 resistance level, to reinforce the rally since the early 2019 “flash crash”, maintaining an upside bias into Monday.

The strong early January rally through .6790 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6844; break here quickly aims for .6858 and maybe up towards .6880/93 resistance targets.
  • But below .6780 opens risk down to .6748.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for .6880.

  • Higher targets would be .6969 and .7000.
  • What Changes This? Below .6626/12 shifts the outlook straight to a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6844 .6858 .6880/93** .6912* .6930*
.6780* .6748 .6705** .6669** .6626/12***

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