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AUDUSD and NZDUSD Stay Bearish


Through mid-November, in the wake of the USD rally after the US Presidential result, both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD FX rates have completed intermediate-term topping patterns.

This leaves the Forex forecasts for both the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar as particularly negative versus the US$, into late 2016.

AUDUSD

Despite a rebound effort Friday above .7455 resistance, a stall and setback from ahead of .7472 (from .7468) leaves negative pressures from the November sell off into Monday.

For Monday/ Tuesday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7396 and .7360 ; break here aims for .7334 and opens risk down to .7306/00.
  • But above .7468/72 opens risk up to .7502, maybe .7561.

Furthermore, the mid-November break above of .7438 completed a multiple peak topping pattern, which produced an intermediate-term bearish shift.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7284 and .7141.
  • Below here targets .7000, .6971 and .6825.

What Changes This? Above .7630 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7778.

Daily AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

NZDUSD

A modest rebound effort Friday, but capped below firm resistance at .7086, to leave negative pressures from the prod to another new correction low on Thursday, and leave risk lower again into Monday.

For Monday/ Tuesday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7010 and .6968; break here aims for .6948, maybe down towards .6893.
  • But above .7062 and .7086 opens risk up to 7111 and maybe closer to .7144/50.

Moreover, the mid-November breakdown through the multi-month “neckline” of the Head and Shoulders top from July, signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift, confirmed below .7030.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6948.
  • Below here targets 6800 and .6676/64.

What Changes This? Above .7403 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7485.

Daily NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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