AUDUSD and NZDUSD surge after Fed Powell’s “dovish” speech

audusd chart

  • A seemingly more dovish tone by Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, in a Wednesday speech in which he indicated that rates were near to the Fed’s neutral level, saw the interest rate markets price in closer to only one rate increase in 2019.
  • This has seen broad US Dollar weakness and saw surges higher by both AUDUSD and NZDUSD, which have reinforced former bullish signals.

 

AUDUSD Bullish tone resumes

An initial probe lower Wednesday just through the swing low from last week at .7200, but rebounding from just below here, off of .7197 and to surge after Fed Powell’s speech through .7277 resistance, to reinforce bullish forces from the mid-November push above key .7315 resistance, to keep the bias higher Thursday.

The strong mid-November advance through key .7315 peaks set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7235 and .7338; break here aims for .7362 and maybe .7382.
  • But below .7230 quickly opens risk down to .7197, .7185 and maybe key .7161.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for .7484.

  • Higher targets would be .7668, .7813 and maybe .8000
  • What Changes This? Below .7161 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 70.18 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7325 .7338 .7362* .7382* .7382*
.7230 .7197** .7185 .7161*** .7149

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

 

NZDUSD Upside threats resurface

A Wednesday rebound from our .6751/48 support area and to surge after Fed Powell’s speech through .6854 and .6870 resistances, re-energizing upside forces from the mid-November push through the .6851/58 July resistance peaks, to aim higher Thursday.

The early November aggressive surge above .6618 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6884; a break here targets .6900, .6921 and .6956.
  • But below .6790 aims for .6751/48 and maybe targets .6705/04.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for be .7060.

  • Higher targets would be .7437 and .7558.
  • What Changes This? Below .6629 shifts the outlook from bullish to neutral and only through .6461 to a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6884* .6900 .6921* .6956* .6995/7000**
.6790 .6751/48* .6705/04* .6662* .6629***

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

 

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