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AUDUSD and NZDUSD Upside Risks

audusd chart

  • The US Dollar has resumed a more negative tone into mid-March, as US Treasury yields move back lower in reaction to a slightly more negative equity tone alongside less inflationary US data.
  • This has allowed most currencies to appreciate against the US$ over the past week and for much of March.
  • For AUDUSD the mid-March probe above .7893 set an intermediate-term range theme defined as .7989 to .7710, with the asymmetric risks to the upside a bullish intermediate-term shift above .7989.
  • The NZDUSD currency rate rejected a push below .7175 for a more bearish tone into March and now aims back to the cycle peaks at .7437.

Read more forex analyses and forecasts

 

AUDUSD Positive tone

A Wednesday advance as we had flagged to push above the .7898 and .7902 resistances, rebounding from our .7842 support (from .7843), building on the Tuesday probe above the key .7893 level and setting the bias higher again for Thursday.

The mid-March probe above .7893 set an intermediate-term range theme defined as .7989 to .7710, BUT with the asymmetric risks to the upside.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7916; break here aims for .7951 and the key .7989 level.
  • But below .7842 opens risk down to .7819.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .7989 to .7710.

  • Upside Risks: Above .7989 sets a bull trend to aim for .8136 and .8295.
  • Downside Risks: Below .7710 sees a bear trend to target .7635, .7500 and .7368/31.

Resistance and Support:

.7916 .7951 .7989*** .80.15 .8046*
.7843/42* .7819 .7769 .7753* .7710**

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

 

NZDUSD Upside risks

A consolidation Wednesday above .7282 support, sustaining upside pressures from last week’s strong rally through various resistances (notably .7279 and .7296), to keep risks higher Thursday.

The mid-February surge through .7420 produced a shift to an intermediate-term bull theme, only below .7175 would signal a Double Top and shift directly to a bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7355 and .7365; break here aims for .7386, maybe .7411.
  • But below .7282 opens risk down to .7241, which we would look to try to hold.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • Whilst above .7175, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat up to .7558 and .7744.

What Changes This? But below .7175 signals a direct shift to bearish.

Resistance and Support:

.7355 .7365* .7386** .7411* .7437***
.7314 .7282** .7241* .7204** .7183*

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

 

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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