A slew of data from Australia on Wednesday, AIG Manufacturing Index, Building Approvals and Commodity Prices should impact the AUDUSD spot FX rate. From a chart perspective, as we describe below, the bias remains lower, despite the very recent bounce effort.
AUDUSD Negative Bias, Despite Bounce
The recent rebound is beginning to falter ahead of barriers at .7753, .7771 and .7797 to leaves a bias for a roll back lower into midweek.
Furthermore, the Monday probe below .7595 leaves a more bearish tone into July.
- We see a downside bias for .7638; break here aims for 7587, maybe to .7553/33.
- But above .7724 opens risk up to .7753, 7771 and maybe .7797.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We now see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to .7533 and .7500 .
- Below here targets .7269 and .7000.
What Changes This? Above .7797 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7849.
Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is falling and has scope to go still lower this week.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
2 Hour AUDUSD Chart