AUDUSD bear trend and NZDUSD bearish threat

audusd chart

  • Late February and early March has seen a resurrection of a stronger US Dollar, with a rising expectation of inflation in the US, a more hawkish tone from Powell and the FOMC, plus Trump increasing the prospects for Trade Wars.
  • For AUDUSD this has produced a sell off through 7756, which has signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift.
  • Although the NZDUSD currency rate has not quite made the same bearish intermediate-term statement as AUDUSD, the threat is for a push below .7175 for a more bearish tone into March.

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AUDUSD Bearish shift and downside risks

A low level consolidation Friday reinforced Thursday’s plunge through key .7756 to hit the next .7710 target and keep the bias lower Monday.

The early March break below .7756 produced a bearish intermediate-term shift.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 7710; break here aims for .7677 and .7651, maybe even towards .7635.
  • But above .7786 opens risk up to .7819, which we would look to try to cap.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .7635.

  • Lower targets would be .7500 and .7368/31
  • What Changes This? Above .7893 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7989 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7786 .7819** .7846* .7893** .7902*
.7710* .7677 .7651** .7635* .7599

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart


 

NZDUSD Downside threat to key .7175

A rebound failure back from just above our .7271 resistance (from .7279), to sustain bear pressures from Thursday’s setback through .7200 (close to key .7175, a bounce from .7183) plus from the late February reversal below the up trend line from December, to keep the bias lower Monday.

The mid-February surge through .7420 produced a shift to an intermediate-term bull theme, BUT risks is growing for a test to .7175, to shift straight back to a bear trend with a Double Top.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias back to .7183; below here quickly targets key .7175, then .7140/38.
  • But above .7279 opens risk up to .7291/96 and then .7345.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • Whilst above .7175, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat up to .7558 and .7744.

What Changes This? But below .7175 signals a direct shift to bearish.

Resistance and Support:

.7279 .7291/96* .7345** .7365* .7386**
.7183 .7175*** .7138** .7109 .7070/69**

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

 

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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