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AUDUSD Bear Trend Under Threat; NZDUSD Stays Bearish

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  • In our last article here on AUDUSD and NZDUSD on 8th August we highlighted a recovery risk for AUDUSD, whilst NZDUSD remained bearish.
  • Renewed global “risk off” activity through mid-August saw the intermediate-term bear trends for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD resume and re-energize.
  • However, the AUDUSD rebound effort at the end of last week, is questioning the intermediate-term bear outlook, with risks of a shift back to neutral above .7321.
  • For NZDUSD the intermediate-term theme remains bearish through latter August and into September, whilst below .6759/66.

 

AUDUSD Short-term reversal reinforced and upside bias

A solid advance Friday as we had flagged through resistance at .7291 and close to key .7321, reinforcing Thursday’s push through the accelerated down trend line from early August for a better small base pattern, to keep the bias to the upside into Monday.

The intermediate-term bear trend was re-energized by the mid-August plunge, BUT only intact whilst below .7321.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for key .7321; break here aims for .7373/75, maybe towards.7412.
  • But below .7275 aims for .7248 and maybe opens risk down to .7199.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7484 we see a downside risk for .7155/41 and .7000.

  • What Changes This? Above .7321 switches the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; only above .7484 to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.7321*** .7373/75* .7412 .7453** .7464**
.7275 .7248 .7199* .7155** .7141**

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

 

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NZDUSD Rebound tone

A better rebound effort Friday through notable resistance in the .6610/18 area to indicate a small base, reinforcing Thursday’s recovery to keep the bias higher into Monday.

The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias through .6636; break here quickly aims for .6656, maybe then .6674.
  • But below .6605/00 aims at .6567 and opens risk down to .6541.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6759/66 we see a downside risk for .6500.

  • Lower targets would be .6347, .6195 and .6000.
  • What Changes This? Above .6759/66 switches the intermediate-term straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.6636 .6656* .6674 .6717* .6759/66***
.6605/00 .6567 .6541* .6500** .6449

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

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