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AUDUSD Bull Trend Neutralised; NZDUSD Bull Trend Also at Risk

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD Bull Trend Neutralised; NZDUSD Bull Trend Also at Risk

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD spot rates have suffered significant erosion (losses) in early September, with the break lower by AUDUSD having a particularly negative impact.

AUDUSD losses through .7484 support signalled an intermediate-term trend reversal and neutralized the bull tone that was previously evident, leaving a neutral consolidation tone into September.

For NZDUSD, the risk is for a similar technical signal, requiring a break below .7200.

AUDUSD

Despite a hesitant rebound effort Wednesday to probe modest resistance at .7487, a setback from just above here (from .7496) leaves negative pressures from the Tuesday breakdown through key .7489/86/84 support to keep a bear bias again for Thursday

In addition, the plunge below this support area (.7489/86/84), also produced a shift in the intermediate-term view from bullish to neutral.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7438; break here aims for .7417 and maybe next critical level at .7403!
  • But above .7496 opens risk up to .7540 and maybe .7568/80.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7403 and .7760.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7760 aims higher for .7835/50/78, .8000 and .8164/66.
  • Downside: Below .7403  sees risk lower for .7284 and .7141.

Daily AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

Despite a Wednesday bounce effort to push above modest resistance at .7288, a setback from just above here (from .7313) leaves negative pressures from the Tuesday sell off through .7286 and .7265 supports, to keep a negative tone again into Thursday.

Mounting risk is still for an intermediate-term shift from bullish to neutral, signalled by a break below .7200.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7231/23; break here aims for key .7200, then maybe .7163.
  • But above .7313 opens risk up to .7364, maybe .7382.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7396/7413.
  • Above here targets .7516/64 and .7744.

What Changes This? Below .7200 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7084.

Daily NZDUSD Chart

NZDUSD

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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