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AUDUSD and NZD Rebounds After Broad US Dollar Losses

audusd chart

  • Broad US Dollar weakness has arisen in the past week, from the ongoing concerns regarding inflation voiced by FOMC Member in their latest Minutes release, alongside disappointing CPI data (Consumer Price Index) on Friday.
  • This activity has allowed for a solid rebound in both AUDUSD and NZDUSD, with growing threat for the bearish intermediate-term outlooks to shift back to neutral.
  • For AUDUSD, this would require a push above .7986, for NZDUSD, this needs a move through .7244.

Read more forex technical analysis

AUDUSD – Upside threat

A strong recovery again Friday as seen since the middle of last week, as anticipated through important resistances at .7875, creating a small base pattern, keeping the bias to the upside for Monday.

The September surrender of important .7805 support produced an intermediate-term bearish shift, BUT risk is growing for an intermediate-term shift back to neutral above .7986.

For Today:

l We see an upside bias through .7897 for .7940/45; break here aims for the key .7986 level.

l But below .7849 quickly opens risk down to .7829, maybe .7768.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7568, maybe towards .7331.

l Below here targets the .7155/41 area.

What Changes This? Above .7986 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .8125.

 

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

NZDUSD – Upside correction risks

An even better recovery on Friday as we had flagged through resistances at .7125, .7145 and .7188, sustaining the rally from Wednesday, creating a small bottom pattern and keeping the threat for a correction still higher Monday.

The early October break of .7128 set an intermediate-term bearish outlook, BUT with risk now for a shift back to neutral above .7244.

For Today:

l We see an upside bias for .7218; break here aims for key .7244, maybe then .7295.

l But below .7150 opens risk down to .7129, which we would look to try to hold.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7003 and .6814.

What Changes This? Above .7244 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7434.

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

 

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