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AUDUSD Rebound Bias and Upside Risk into RBA Meeting

Technical Analysis

Video Analysis

Video Analysis 2

Key focus into Tuesday 5th May will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia Board Meeting Rate Announcement and Statement. This will be of particular interest given markets indecision about the likelihood of an interest rate cut, or not. From a chart perspective, we still see a base and underlying positive tone for early May.

AUDUSD Positive Bias

A further dip lower on Monday, but then a minor bounce effort to signal potential for a small base and for the corrective phase to be concluding.

This now sees bias for a rebound back higher into midweek and for the bullish pressures from latter April to resurface.

We still see upside risks for May from the rally through .7938, that defined a base and the push above chart/ retrace resistance at .8027 and .8062 that set a more bullish outlook.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7893; break here aims for .7926.
  • But below .7800/.7790 opens risk down to .7761 and .7707/02, maybe key .7679, which we would look to try to hold.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a more positive tone with the bullish threat back to the new recovery peak at .8076, then to .8137.
  • Above here targets key levels at .8224/34 and .8295.

What Changes This? Below .7761 eases bull risks; through .7679 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7533.

Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum has corrected from OB, and we see scope to go higher this week.

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