AUDUSD threatens a bullish shift, as NZDUSD maintain bear its trend


  • In our 30th July article on AUDUSD and NZDUSD we highlighted our bearish intermediate-term views. However, for AUDUSD, this view has been questioned
  • AUDUSD recovery efforts since the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting this week (early August) is now threatening a challenge to .7484, above which would now see an intermediate-term bullish trend shift.
  • For NZDUSD, however, the July-August selloff from just below the .6858 resistance sustains a negative range theme with threat of a bearish extension risks into mid-month.

 

AUDUSD Upside risks

A strong Tuesday advance after the RBA decision (no change, but a slightly more hawkish tone), to send the market through the .7420 impulse level and to prod the .7439 peak from late July, to shift risks higher for Wednesday.

We see an intermediate-term bear trend whilst below .7484, BUT growing risks is now for a push above here for an intermediate-term shift straight from bearish to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7439; break here aims for .7464, the maybe for key .7484.
  • But below .7412 opens risk down to .7386.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7484 we see a downside risk for .7155/41 and .7000.

  • What Changes This? Above .7484 switches the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.7439* .7464** .7484*** .7566 .7623**
.7412 .7386* .7345** .7315* .7308**

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

 audusd

NZDUSD Bear bias intact

A Tuesday rebound failure back from below initial .6766 resistances, to sustain negative forces from last Friday’s selloff through the .6759/43 support levels, still holding .6717/10 support, but keeping the bias lower Wednesday.

The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6717/10; break here aims for the cycle low at .6693, then maybe towards .6666.
  • But above .6766 targets .6798 and maybe aims for .6835, which we would look to try to cap.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6858 we see a downside risk for .6676/64.

  • Lower targets would be .6500 and .6343.
  • What Changes This? Above .6858 switches the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.6766 .6798 .6835** .6851** .6858***
.6717/10* .6693** .6666 .6631 .6603/00

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd

 

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