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Australian and New Zealand Dollars Exhibit Bear Risks vs. USD


Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have both moved into range environments versus the US currency in November. But strong gains by the US dollar since the US presidential election result on Wednesday (9th November), leaves risk for a more bearish tone for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

For AUDUSD a more negative intermediate-term view requires a push below .7438.

For NZDUSD, only below .7030 signals a more bearish tone for November (and beyond).

AUDUSD

As anticipated, another significant breakdown Friday through support at .7567, .7554/52 and even .7535 to reinforce the sell-off seen since the US Presidential election and leave risk for still further negative price action into Friday.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7521 and key .7502 targets; break here aims for .7470, maybe as deep as critical .7438.
  • But above .7580 opens risk up to .7630.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the broad range defined by .7438 and .7778.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7778 aims higher for .7835/50/78, .8000 and .8164/66.
  • Downside: Below .7438 sees risk lower for .7284 and .7141.

NZDUSD

A bearish tone on Friday to push through support at .7174 and .7134 and approach stronger support at .7105/04.

This reinforces negative pressures since the US Presidential election result and also after the Thursday RBNZ Meeting, to leave risk of further losses into Monday.

The early November push above .7370 set the intermediate-term outlook to a neutral range environment, but with growing risk for a challenge to .7030, through which would see a bearish shift.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7105/04; break here aims for . .7073, maybe critical support at .7030.
  • But above .7150 opens risk up to .7228. 

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7030 and .7485.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7485 aims higher for .7564 and .7744.
  • Downside: Below .7030 sees risk lower for .6948, .6800 and  .6676/64

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