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Both AUDUSD & NZDUSD Threatening Negative Shifts

Technical Analysis

Both Australian and New Zealand Dollars have seen notable losses against the US$ since late April into early May, which have damaged the intermediate-term outlooks into May.

AUDUSD has already shifted to a broader, intermediate-term neutral them, with risks of a more bearish shift. NZDUSD sees risks skewed also to a shift to neutral from bullish for May.

Read more technical analysis of currency pairs

AUDUSD

A push lower again Wednesday to breach .7474 to reinforce the aggressive sell off Tuesday (after the rate cut by the RBA) through the trend line from mid-March, now for an intermediate term switch from a bullish to neutral theme and to leave the bias lower Thursday/ Friday.

Risk is now through .7411, through which sees an intermediate-term bearish shift.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see a downside bias for next key .7411; break here aims for .7388 and maybe .7338/18.
  • But above .7550/60 opens risk up towards .7631.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7411 and .7849.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7835 aims higher for .7878 and .8000.
  • Downside: Below .7411 sees risk lower for .7197 and 7106.

Daily AUDUSD Chart

audusd

NZDUSD

A further break lower Wednesday to reinforce the bearish outside Tuesday pattern back from the mid-April peak at .7054, to push through .6947 and .6893 supports, for a further correction into Thursday/ Friday.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see a downside bias for .6856; break here aims for key .6805, which we would look to again try to hold.
  • But above .6941 opens risk up to .6997.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • Whilst above .6805, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7000/12.
  • Above here targets .7232 and .7396/7413.

What Changes This? Below .6805 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6664.

Daily NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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