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Both the Euro and GB Pound Corrections Threaten Bull Themes

EURUSD Chart

  • Both EURUSD and GBPUSD have gone into a consolidation phase through mid-June.
  • Although intermediate-term bullish themes remain intact, risk is going for shifts back to neutral themes.
  • For EURUSD, below 1.1107 would see a neutral shift; for GBPUSD, a shift back to arrange theme requires surrender of 1.2513.

Read more technical analyses of the forex market.

EURUSD – Downside threat

Despite a rebound Friday, an inside pattern highlights ongoing vulnerability after the significant setback Wednesday-Thursday for a Double Top pattern and reversing below the up trendline from mid-April, keeping the threat to the downside for Monday.

Furthermore, we revise our intermediate-term trigger points, with growing threat for an intermediate-term shift from bullish back to neutral, but only seen through 1.1107.

For Today:

l We see a downside bias for key 1.1107; break here aims for 1.1074, maybe down towards 1.1027.

l But above 1.1229 opens risk up to 1.1296/1.1300.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

l Whilst above 1.1107, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1300.

l Above here targets 1.1366, 1.1428/47, may be as high as 1.1616.

What Changes This? Below 1.1107 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0837.

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

EURUSD Chart

GBPUSD – Downside bias

An extremely erratic consolidation dominated last week, but whilst contained below 1.2818, we see the threat to the downside Monday.

Furthermore, risk into June is for a push below 1.2513, which would see an intermediate shift from bullish to neutral; potentially a push below 1.2363, which was seen intermediate-term bear theme.

For Today:

l We see a downside bias for 1.2689; break here aims for 1.2634.

l But above 1.2818 opens risk higher, with little significant resistance seen ahead of 1.2964/78.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.3121.

l Above here targets the 1.3455/3534 area.

What Changes This? Below 1.2513 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.2363.

 

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

GBPUSD Chart

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