fbpx

EURUSD and GBPUSD intermediate-term bear trend being questioned

eurusd chart

  • In our last EURUSD and GBPUSD report we highlighted the renewed  intermediate-term bear trend for EURUSD and the still extending bear theme for GBPUSD.
  • However, from mid-August the US Dollar has seen a negative turn, driven by easing Emerging Markets tensions, reduced global trade war threats and generally a more “risk on” environment”.
  • This has allowed for a rebound in both EURUSD and GBPUSD, not only easing the intermediate-term bearish themes, but also threatening to neutralise these trends, and to shift to more neutral, range environments.
  • Key levels to monitor to the upside will be 1.1628 for EURUSD and 1.3042 for GBPUSD.

 

EURUSD Upside threat

A push still higher Tuesday to prod 1.1600 resistance and build on Monday’s dip and a bounce from above initial support at 1.1372 (from 1.1393) and strong rally through 1.1472/82, to keep the bias higher Wednesday.

The August surrender of 1.1509/07 shifted the intermediate-term view to bearish, BUT risk is now for a move above 1.1628 to shift the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for key 1.1628; break here aims for 1.1656 and maybe towards 1.1717.
  • But below 1.1511 aims for 1.1464 and opens risk down to 1. 393.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.1312.

  • Lower targets would be 1.1134, 1.1000 and 1.0839
  • What Changes This? Above 1.1628 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.1791 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.1628*** 1.1656 1.1717 1.1746/51/60 1.1791***
1.1511 1.1464** 1.1393* 1.1355 1.1300**

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

 

GBPUSD Upside risk

A strong rally Tuesday through the 1.2827/37 area and 1.2912 resistance to build on Monday’s late session rally above the down trend line from late June, keeping the bias for a correction still higher Wednesday.

The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is now for a move above 1.3043 to shift the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias 1.2960; break here aims for 1.3000 and then key 1.3043.
  • But below 1.2844 aims for 1.2810 and opens risk down towards 1.2727.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2589, 1.2366, maybe towards 1.2109.

  • What Changes This? Above 1.3213 shifts the intermediate-term outlook to neutral and only above 1.3363 to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

1.2960* 1.3000* 1.3043*** 1.3126* 1.3173*
1.2844 1.2810* 1.2727* 1.2696* 1.2661**

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

 gbpusd chart

Are you ready to trade?

Sign up with OctaFX LogoYour capital is at risk

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


Popular Brokers