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EURUSD and GBPUSD intermediate-term bearish trends look to extend

eurusd chart

  • The US Dollar has seen a corrective setback and consolidation earlier in May, but through mid-month the greenback has seen a renewed strengthening against major G10 currencies (driven by higher US Treasury yields and an anticipation of a more hawkish Federal Reserve).
  • In our article published 10th May we highlighted a GBPUSD intermediate-term Double Top with the plunge through 1.3710, which has been reinforced by subsequent bearish price action.
  • In addition, EURUSD has contoured to selloff, reinforcing the prior break below 1.2153, that shifted the intermediate-term trend to bearish (again highlighted back on 10th May) and we expect further EURUSD FX rate downside pressures into latter May.

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EURUSD Bear trend extends

Another setback Friday (as expected) to a new bear move low, after lacklustre rebound effort late last week were capped by 1.1822 and 1.1854 resistances, sustaining negative pressures from the mid-May re-energized bear trend, keeping the bias back lower Monday.

The latter April plunge through 1.2153 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see an downside bias for 1.1749; break here opens risk down to 1.1735 and 1.1716/12, even towards 1.1661.
  • But above 1.1822 quickly aims for 1.1854 and maybe 1.1903.
  • Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below 1.2245 we see a downside risk for 1.1914.
  • Lower targets would be 1.1716 and 1.1553.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.2245 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.2414 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.1822 1.1854* 1.1903 1.1946* 1.1996**
1.1749 1.1735** 1.1716/12** 1.1661* 1.1637

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

GBPUSD Bearish trend intact

A negative tone Friday to reinforce the setback Thursday from our 1.3569/72 resistance area PLUS Monday’s failure back from below our 1.3618 resistance, leaving risks lower Monday.

The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3450 and then 1.3434, maybe towards 1.3346.
  • But above 1.3569/72 targets 1.3618 and maybe aims at 1.3666.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3456.

  • Lower targets would be 1.3302/00 and 1.3038
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3998 shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bearish back to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

1.3569/72* 1.3618** 1.3666* 1.3703 1.3762*
1.3450 1.3434 1.3346* 1.3329 1.3302/00**

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

 

gbpusd chart

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