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EURUSD and GBPUSD stay positive through late May

EURUSD Chart

  • The US Dollar retains a negative bias into late May, likely to extend into early June against most major currencies.
  • A resilient consolidation by EURUSD in late May after a strong mid-May advance leaves all the threat for significantly higher price action in the short/intermediate-term.
  • Despite a GBPUSD setback and risk of further corrective losses, the intermediate-term outlook for June remains positive.

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EURUSD – Rebound bias

A dip Friday, but still a relatively solid consolidation over the past week above modest support at 1.1155, leaving bullish pressures from the strong extension rally in mid-May, maintaining risk higher for Monday.

Furthermore, the April push above 1.0906 signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.

For Today:

l We see an upside bias back up to 1.1268; break here aims for the key November 2016 spike higher 1.1300, maybe towards the 1.1366 target

l But below 1.1155 opens risk down to 1.1074.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1300.

l Above here targets 1.1366, 1.1428/47, may be as high as 1.1616.

What Changes This? Below 1.0568 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0493.

 

Daily EURUSD Chart

EURUSD Chart

GBPUSD – Downside correction bias

As anticipated a very negative Friday with a break below 1.2865, the 1.2843/29 area and also 1.2803, reinforcing the top signalled on the prior push down through support at 1.2930 and 1.2887, keeping risks lower for Monday.

However, the mid-April push above 1.2775 produced a multi-month Triple/ Quadruple Bottom pattern, which signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.

For Today:

l We see a downside bias for 1.2774; break here aims for 1.2744, maybe 1.2707.

l But above 1.2890 opens risk up to 1.2947.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.3121.

l Above here targets the 1.3455/3534 area.

What Changes This? Below 1.2363 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.2107.

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

GBPUSD Chart

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