EURUSD has experienced erratic activity in early March, with a sell off and rebound to reinforce the view of a broader range theme. The latest rebound, however, sets a slightly positive bias within that range.
For USDJPY, similar hesitancy has been displayed thus far in March. However, whilst below 114.88, the bias is for renewed bearish pressures.
An erratic tone on unexpected Friday, but building on the Thursday rebound from ahead of firm supports at 1.0808 and 1.0777, above 1.0960/70, 1.1000 and 1.1030 resistances, to keep the tone positive within the broader range theme Monday.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.0777 and 1.1157.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.1157 aims higher for 1.1376/95 and 1.1495.
- Downside: Below 1.0777 sees risk lower for 1.0708 and 1.0520.
- We see an upside bias for 1.1068 and 1.1093; break here aims for 1.1137/57.
- But below 1.0950 opens risk down to 1.0902/1.0891.
Daily EURUSD Chart
An indecisive consolidation Friday, but again capped below 114.55 and key 114.88 barriers, to keep the bias for a roll still lower on Monday.
Moreover, the previous push below 117.62 signalled a renewal of bear pressures into February.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 110.33/00.
- Below here targets 106.65/12.
What Changes This? Above 114.88 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 117.53.
- We see a downside bias for 113.18/11; break here aims for 112.87, maybe back to 112.13/111.95.
- But above 114.55 opens risk up to 114.88, which we would look to try to cap. Break above targets 115.07/20.
Daily USDJPY Chart