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EURUSD and GBPUSD Aim Higher Into Key “Risk” Events

EURUSD Chart

  • Both EURUSD and GBPUSD have retained a positive tone this week into 3 key “risk” events; the UK General Election, the ECB Meeting and the Comey testimony.
  • The asymmetric bias is for a EURUSD break above a key peak at 1.1300 for a still stronger outlook into June.
  • Skewed risk for GBPUSD is to the upside, to target 1.3121 and above into June.

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EURUSD – Upside threat

They pushed down through initial, minor support at 1.1235, but a rebound from better support down at 1.1200 (from 1.1202), sustaining bullish pressures from the entire rally from early April, aiming higher again into Thursday’s ECB Meeting and UK General Election (plus the Comey testimony).

Furthermore, the April push above 1.0906 signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.

For Today:

l We see an upside bias for 1.1285; break here aims for a key target 1.1300 and through here up towards 1.1366.

l But below 1.1200 opens risk down to 1.1162.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1300.

l Above here targets 1.1366, 1.1428/47, may be as high as 1.1616.

What Changes This? Below 1.0568 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0493.

Daily EURUSD Chart

EURUSD Chart

GBPUSD – Downside correction bias

As anticipated a more positive tone on Wednesday with a push above resistance at 1.2947/51, and whilst above support at 1.2850 we still see upside risk into Thursday’s UK General Election (plus ECB Meeting and Comey testimony).

Furthermore, the mid-April push above 1.2775 produced a multi-month Triple/ Quadruple Bottom pattern, which signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.

For Today:

l We see an upside bias for 1.3015, maybe up to the cycle high at 1.3048.

l But below 1.2850 quickly targets 1.2828 and opens risk down to 1.2774/68.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.3121.

l Above here targets the 1.3455/3534 area.

What Changes This? Below 1.2363 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.2107.

Daily GBPUSD Chart

GBPUSD Chart
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