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EURUSD & GBPUSD Mixed Fortunes

eurusd chart

  • Indecisive activity for EURUSD and GBPUSD in early April.
  • EURUSD has shifted to an intermediate-term range theme, with the immediate bias lower. Key support is at 1.2153.
  • GBPUSD remains resilient in consolidation and retains an intermediate-term bullish theme whilst above 1.3780.

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EURUSD Negative bias intact

A Friday rebound above minor 1.2282 resistance, but whilst below 1.2315 we still see negative forces from Thursday’s selloff through the notable 1.2249/47 support area and to probe the up trend line from November 2017, keeping risks lower Monday.

The probe above 1.2435 set a broader range theme into March (1.2539 to 1.2153), BUT with risks now skewed for a bullish intermediate-term shift above 1.2539.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2214/03; break here quickly aims towards key 1.2153, maybe 1.2110.
  • But above 1.2315 aims for 1.2369 and opens risk up towards 1.2421.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2539 to 1.2153.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.2539 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.2600/02, 1.2827 and 1.3000.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.2153 sees a bear trend to target 1.1914, 1.1716 and 1.1553.

Resistance and Support:

1.2315 1.2369 1.2421 1.2476/84** 1.2539***
1.2214/03 1.2153*** 1.2110 1.2059 1.2026

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

GBPUSD Rebound bias

An unexpected rebound Friday above 1.4097 resistance, rejecting Thursday’s selloff through 1.4008 and 1.3982 supports and the up trend line from early March, shifting the bias back higher Monday.

The latter March break above 1.4145 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.4153; break here aims for 1.4200.
  • But below 1.4043 opens risk down to 1.3999, maybe 1.3964.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.4346.

  • Higher targets would be 1.5006
  • What Changes This? Below 1.3780 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.3710 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.4153 1.4200* 1.4245** 1.4278/878 1.4346***
1.4043 1.3999 1.3921** 1.3873 1.3840

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

 

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