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EURUSD and GBPUSD Rebound Risks

eurusd chart

  • The more positive US Dollar seen in October has faded through mid-November, with the US$ weakening within G3 (versus the Euro and Japanese Yen), but also to an extent against the GBP.
  • For EURUSD, the recent rebound effort has eased the intermediate-term bearish theme, with risks growing to neutralise this bear trend with a push above 1.1880,
  • For GBPUSD, the market remains dominated by erratic activity since the Bank of England rate hike in early November, but currently with a positive tone to the non-trend environment.

Read all technical forex analyses               

EURUSD Rebound bias

A solid rebound Friday as expected, rejecting downside forces from Wednesday’s bearish Shooting Star candlestick pattern setback from 1.1861 and despite a sell off this already morning through the 1.1756/43 support rea, whilst above 1.1712 we see the bias back higher Monday.

November risk is still for a challenge to 1.1880, above which would see an intermediate-term shift from bearish to neutral.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1797; break here aims for 1.1835 then 1.1861 and opens risk to key 1.1880.
  • But below 1.1712 quickly aims at 1.1660.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • Whilst below 1.1880 we see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.1479.
  • Below here targets 1.1311 and 1.1107.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.1880 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.2089.

Resistance and Support:

1.1835 1.1860/61** 1.1880*** 1.1936** 1.2005**
1.1712 1.1660** 1.1621* 1.1584* 1.1553**

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

 

GBPUSD Positive tone

A solid bounce Thursday-Friday above 1.3230 resistance, easing negative pressures from the significant mid-November sell off (that probed 1.3066 support), keeping the bias higher Monday.

We see a broader range theme, but still see November risk for a challenge to 1.2903, below which would see an intermediate-term bear shift.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias back to 1.3276, maybe the 1.3321/38 area.
  • But below 1.3168 opens risk up to 1.3113.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2903 and 1.3658.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3658 aims higher for 1.3841 and 1.4000.
  • Downside: Below 1.2903 sees risk lower for 1.2773 and 1.2587.

Resistance and Support:

1.3276 1.3321/38** 1.3366 1.3402 1.3464
1.3168 1.3113 1.3060* 1.3038/26/17** 1.3000

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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