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EURUSD Hesitant, but Negative; GBPUSD Stays Bearish

GBPUSD Chart 2018-07-12

  • In our last report here on 2nd July discussing the Euro and GB Pound we highlighted an erratic consolidation tone for EURUSD and an intermediate-term bear trend for GBPUSD.
  • We still see EURUSD defined by an intermediate-term consolidation, with range parameters seen as 1.1851 to 1.1509/07, with the immediate bias lower.
  • For the GBPUSD currency rate the July rebound appears to be faltering and ongoing political risks sees the intermediate-term bear theme intact (whilst below 1.3473).

EURUSD

Bias shifts lower

A resilient consolidation Wednesday above 1.1689 support, and to probe at the 1.1750/56 resistance area, BUT then a selloff overnight has seen a push down through 1.1689, to shift risks lower for Thursday.

We see an intermediate-term range, 1.1851 to 1.1507, BUT with risk now easing for a bullish shift above 1.1851.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1664; break here aims for 1.1648, maybe towards 1.1590.
  • But above 1.1729 opens risk up to 1.1760 and 1.1791.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1851 to 1.1507.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1851 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.2210, 1.2414/21 and 1.2529.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1507 sees a bear trend to target 1.1312 and 1.1134.

Resistance and Support:

1.1729 1.1760 1.1791* 1.1851*** 1.1903
1.1664 1.1648 1.1590 1.1560 1.1526*

4 Hour Chart

EURUSD Chart 2018-07-12

GBPUSD

Downside risks again

A sideways consolidation Wednesday between support and resistance at 1.3189 and 1/3301, but whilst contained below 1.3301 we see negative forces from Monday’s bearish outside pattern through the July trend line support, plus the selloff overnight keeps risks lower for Thursday.

The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3189; break here aims for 1.3156, maybe towards 1.3094.
  • But above 1.3301 opens risk up to 1.3363.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3040/27 and 1.3000.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2773 and 1.2587.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3473 shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bearish straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

1.3301* 1.3363* 1.3391 1.3447 1.3473***
1.3189 1.3156 1.3094 1.3049/40** 1.3027**

4 Hour Chart

GBPUSD Chart 2018-07-12

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