EURUSD poised for a still more bullish move into the ECB Meeting


  • The pan-European currency has produced strong gains against most G10 currencies over the past three weeks since ECB President Draghi indicated a potentially more hawkish tone in late June.
  • This has produced significant technical gains through important longer-term resistance levels.
  • Going into today’s ECB Meeting, the growing threat is for a July challenge to critical levels at 1.616 and 1.1714.
  • Above 1.1714 would signal a still more bullish longer term outlook into August and potentially beyond.

EURUSD – Bullish threat

A dip lower on Wednesday to probe minor support at 1.1509, but whilst above 1.1473 we still see upside pressures from the Tuesday push through the 1.1490 peak, psychological/option target at 1.1500 and 1.1555, maintaining upside risks into Thursday’s ECB Meeting.

Moreover, we still see a bullish intermediate-term outlook into July.

For Today:

l We see an upside bias for 1.1583 and a key peak at 1.1616; a break above here would target 1.1665 and maybe the critical 1.1714 level

l But below 1.1473 opens risk down to 1.1409.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

l Whilst above 1.1107, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1366.

l Above here targets 1.1428/47, 1.1616 and 1.1714.

What Changes This? Below 1.1107 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0837.

Daily Chart

EURUSD Chart

4 Hour Chart

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.