GBPUSD has proved resilient in early April and has a positive bias within an intermediate-term range. The threat is for bullish shift, but needing a push above 1.2775.
EURUSD did previously signal an intermediate-term bullish theme in late March above 1.0829, BUT April losses see risks for a move lower and shift back to an intermediate-term range phase.
Despite a dip lower in early April, support at 1.2375 remains intact and the Wednesday rebound sets upside pressures into Thursday from both the recovery effort since the FOMC Meeting in mid-March and the late March rebound effort.
Furthermore, risk within the broader range environment is still skewed towards a bullish shift in the intermediate-term outlook, but only signalled above 1.2775.
- We see an upside bias for 1.2559; break here aims for 1.2616 and even to 1.2634.
- But below 1.2419 opens risk down to 1.2375, maybe for 1.2339/21.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.1982 and 1.2775.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.2775 aims higher for 1.3000, 1.3121 and 1.3455/3534 area.
- Downside: Below 1.1982 sees risk lower for 1.1943, 1.1880 and 1.1500.
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart
Yet another low-level consolidation below minor resistance at 1.0702, sustaining downside pressures into Thursday, from the negative price action seen from late March.
Although an intermediate-term bullish shift was previously signalled above 1.0874, growing threat is now for a push back down through 1.0598, which would signal an intermediate-term shift back to a neutral, broader consolidation theme.
- We see a downside bias for 1.0635; break here aims quickly for 1.0620, maybe towards critical support at 1.0598.
- But above 1.0702 opens risk up to 1.0753 and 1.0773, maybe towards 1.0795.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1000.
- Above here targets 1.1300 and 1.1428/47.
What Changes This? Below 1.0598 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0493.
2 Hour EURUSD Chart