The GBPUSD outlook remains negative into April, but a rebound Monday is, we believe, at least partially showing respect, for the Tuesday release of inflation data from both the UK and US.
CPI, RPI, PPI and HPI data is due from the UK AT 09.30 local time and PPI and Retail Sales data from the US at 08.30 ET.
GBPUSD Bear Bias, but Cautious
A push close to our next target at 1.4555, but then a bounce above 1.4668, to ease immediate bearish risks, of a resilient consolidation into Tuesday.
However, with resistance at 1.4982/95 capping rally efforts again last week, the subsequent plunge to a new cycle low aims still lower for April.
For Today: We see a neutral tone between 1.4565 and 1.4755 (with a positive bias)
- Break above 1.4755 aims for 1.4840, which we would look to try to cap.
- Break below 1.4565 aims for 1.4500, which we would look to try to hold.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- Downside bias is back to the new April low at 1.4565.
- We see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to target 1.4500.
- A break aims for key longer term supports at 1.4295/28.
What Changes This? Above 1.4983 eases bear risks; through 1.5013 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.5169.
Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is falling and has scope to go still lower this week.