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GBPUSD Retains Bullish Threat, but EURUSD Risk Shifts Lower


A differing outlook for the GB Pound versus the US Dollar and the Euro versus the US currency as we move into mid-February.

In a previous report, we had highlighted upside risks for both the GBPUSD and EURUSD FX, given positive activity from the beginning of the year.

A solid consolidation tone for GBPUSD leaves the risks still skewed higher in the short/intermediate-term. However, losses to EURUSD have seen the focus switch to the downside.

A more bullish outlook for GBPUSD still needs a push above 1.2775, but for EURUSD a more negative theme is seen down through 1.0577 (only bullish up through 1.0874).

GBPUSD

Despite another dip lower on Friday, initial 1.2435 support has held, once again reinforcing the positive Hammer type pattern from Tuesday off of 1.2345, keeping risk higher Monday.

Furthermore, we still see the February risk up to the key 1.2775 level, through which would see an intermediate-term bullish shift.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.2582; break here opens risk up to 1.2634, maybe 1.2706.
  • But below 1.2435 opens risk down to 1.2345 and maybe 1.2305.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.1982 and 1.2775.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.2775 aims higher for 1.3000, 1.3121 and 1.3455/3534 area.
  • Downside: Below 1.1982 sees risk lower for 1.1943, 1.1880 and 1.1500.

Daily GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

EURUSD

Another push lower as we had anticipated for Friday, through support at 1.0638 and 1.0619, maintaining negative pressures from the February sell-off, pointing lower again for Monday.

Furthermore, into February we see risk for a shift to an intermediate-term bearish theme on a break below 1.0577.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.0606; break here aims for key support in the 1.0588/77/69 area, then to 1.0540 may be as deep as 1.0500
  • But above 1.0672 targets 1.0714 and opens risk up to 1.0755.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.0577 and 1.0874.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.0874 aims higher for 1.1000 and 1.1300.
  • Downside: Below 1.0577 sees risk lower for 1.0339 and parity (1.0000).

Daily EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

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